Caliber News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Caliber
Will there be a new revolutionary technology by 2030?
Aug 18, 3:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
83.27%chance
481451
OptionVotes
1166
939
Will a South American country be the next world cup champion in 2026?
Nov 8, 5:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
22.73%chance
251431
OptionVotes
1473
804
OptionProbability
40
37
23
Is Manifold better-calibrated than financial markets on questions about future asset prices?
Mar 10, 11:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
6.04%chance
10810
OptionVotes
730
168
Before 2026, will frontier AI models get much better at expressing calibrated uncertainty in their answers?
Feb 6, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
65.35%chance
8758
OptionVotes
1373
728
Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?
May 9, 4:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13.73%chance
6272
OptionVotes
253
41
Will Manifold bring back calibration before LLMs are smart enough to provide a better calibration graph?
Aug 22, 8:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
38.02%chance
5234
OptionVotes
128
78
OptionVotes
151
66
OptionProbability
66
66
66
66
52
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
48
48
Which do you like more, showing wisdom through profit or adding to the accuracy through ability to calibrate?
Aug 20, 1:38 PMSep 19, 8:59 PM
80