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California News

State Farm announces it is leaving the California residential insurance market, announcement before December 31, 2025

Feb 15, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.29%chance

27106385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138784

35201

Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?

Nov 15, 1:41 AMNov 6, 4:59 AM

3.4%chance

4970419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

49966

4816

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3148216

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

31

27

24

17

Who will become the next governor of California after Gavin Newsom?

Jul 4, 12:46 AMJul 11, 8:59 PM

377378

OptionProbability

Eleni Kounalakis

Katie Porter

Other

Betty Yee

Rick Caruso

Antonio Villaraigosa

Rob Bonta

Kamala Harris

Toni Atkins

Tony Thurmond

Xavier Becerra

Jesse Perez

Michael L. Younger

30

20

13

9

8

7

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

🔥 Will More Than 1,000,000 Acres Burn During The 2025 California Wildfire Season?

Sep 30, 8:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.36%chance

336119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

795

Dems lose California or New York by 2028?

Nov 9, 8:08 AMNov 7, 7:59 AM

4.09%chance

54176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4842

207

If passed, will 2 or more AI orgs significantly shift their operations from California and give SB 1047 as the reason?

Aug 29, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.22%chance

152594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2680

373

Will California decriminalize psilocybin mushrooms before 2027?

Jan 14, 1:34 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

30.35%chance

291526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1615

254

Will California be in the top 5 economies in the world in 2027?

Apr 26, 1:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.36%chance

20779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

600

If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?

Oct 8, 8:43 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

71.52%chance

12682

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1585

631

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 26th State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Wendy Carrillo

Sara Hernandez

Other

33

33

33

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 2nd State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Damon Connolly

James Gore

Natalie Rogers

Other

25

25

25

25

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