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Prediction markets for California Insurance

2026 California Insurance Commissioner election

May 25, 3:42 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

61505

OptionProbability

Ben Allen

Jane Kim

Steven Bradford

Patrick Wolf

Stacy Korsgaden

Robert Howell

Other

50

42

2

2

2

2

1

Will California repeal or significantly amend Proposition 103 by December 31, 2028?

Jan 10, 2:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.84%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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