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Prediction markets for Candid Health

Trump breaks the two term limit

Jan 8, 12:14 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

9.15%chance

429043

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3151

317

Which 2024 US presidential candidate will live longer?

Mar 9, 2:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1027630

OptionProbability

Donald Trump

Joe Biden

60

40

Will Kamala Harris Announce Her Candidacy For California Governor In 2025?

Jun 26, 11:39 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

1.46%chance

12907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

820

12

Donald Trump dies before 2036?

Apr 14, 11:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.1%chance

12158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

214

47

Will mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions in LMIC get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:06 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

64.69%chance

5110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

226

Will alcohol, tobacco, & sugar taxation get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.09%chance

696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

281

157

How much will my jaw surgery cost?

Nov 15, 4:33 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

331

OptionProbability

30-39k

<10k

10-19k

20-29k

40-49k

50-59k

60-69k

70-79k

80-89k

>89k

24

17

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

Will the M72/AS01E tuberculosis vaccine candidate have an efficacy of 50% or higher in the phase 3 trial?

Aug 24, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.76%chance

424

OptionVotes

NO

YES

97

83

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