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Prediction markets for Candid Health

Trump breaks the two term limit

Jan 8, 12:14 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

9.71%chance

4712418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3050

328

Which 2024 US presidential candidate will live longer?

Mar 9, 2:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11010765

OptionProbability

Donald Trump

Joe Biden

67

33

Donald Trump dies before 2036?

Apr 14, 11:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.86%chance

23851

OptionVotes

NO

YES

220

45

How much will my jaw surgery cost?

Nov 15, 4:33 AMFeb 26, 7:59 AM

5611

OptionProbability

20-29k

30-39k

10-19k

40-49k

50-59k

60-69k

70-79k

>89k

80-89k

<10k

22

21

11

8

8

8

8

8

5

3

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan?

Aug 5, 5:54 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

66.45%chance

21504

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

67

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan?

Aug 10, 10:21 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

68%chance

11352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

87

Will mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions in LMIC get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:06 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

67.62%chance

6136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

382

213

Will alcohol, tobacco, & sugar taxation get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.09%chance

696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

281

157

Will the M72/AS01E tuberculosis vaccine candidate have an efficacy of 50% or higher in the phase 3 trial?

Aug 24, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.76%chance

424

OptionVotes

NO

YES

97

83

Will Bryan Johnson try RTR242 by 2033?

May 18, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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