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Prediction markets for Canlis

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

Jan 19, 6:31 PMJan 31, 5:59 AM

5.72%chance

19470814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5721

1690

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

69.99%chance

8526818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1527

655

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.29%chance

19025144

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

598

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.02%chance

11121965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3565

1458

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2950

638

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1411132

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

62

53

43

29

10

5

Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?

May 29, 2:06 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

49.86%chance

499017

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1295

484

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

67.57%chance

748052

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

933

Can NP-complete problems be solved in polynomial time?

Nov 23, 2:25 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.27%chance

336254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

925

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

413738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

629

By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?

Jan 5, 10:58 AMJan 6, 6:29 PM

69.53%chance

342567

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1647

426

Will there be a robot caregiver that can take care of a person 80+ years old w/o assistance by end of 2040?

Feb 3, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

80.17%chance

32954

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1302

883

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