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Prediction markets for Canlis

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

Jan 19, 6:31 PMJan 31, 5:59 AM

5.95%chance

19570826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5527

1702

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

72.87%chance

8628116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1639

610

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

70%chance

19025337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

501

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

9.7%chance

11122065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3665

1447

Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?

May 29, 2:06 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

40.87%chance

8015366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

630

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2950

638

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1712257

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

64

56

44

30

9

5

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

67.26%chance

758057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

938

Can NP-complete problems be solved in polynomial time?

Nov 23, 2:25 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.27%chance

336254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

925

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

Nov 18, 8:23 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

91.72%chance

193739

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3341

301

Can i do 100 days of tango under 1 minute (LinkedIn game) second try

Apr 7, 8:49 AMJul 16, 8:48 AM

40.88%chance

132012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1203

831

Will there be a robot caregiver that can take care of a person 80+ years old w/o assistance by end of 2040?

Feb 3, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

80.17%chance

32954

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1302

883

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