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Prediction markets for Canlis

can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028

Jun 7, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47%chance

77807582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

74%chance

8728182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1687

593

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74%chance

19325740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1761

447

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

9.7%chance

11122065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3665

1447

Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?

May 29, 2:06 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.76%chance

8315946

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

652

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1714357

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

64

56

44

30

9

3

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2950

638

Can NP-complete problems be solved in polynomial time?

Nov 23, 2:25 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.27%chance

336254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

925

By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?

Jan 5, 10:58 AMJan 6, 6:29 PM

92.34%chance

374082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3054

149

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

Nov 18, 8:23 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

91.72%chance

193739

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3341

301

Can I get into the 2026 World Cup final for under $500 by showing up at the stadium 30 minutes before kickoff?

May 21, 6:57 PMJul 18, 12:00 PM

4.52%chance

93644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4597

218

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

884

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