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Prediction markets for Canlis

can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028

Jun 7, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.89%chance

89820326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

907

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

Jan 19, 6:31 PMJan 31, 5:59 AM

5.95%chance

19570826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5527

1702

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2331706

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

65

56

50

29

9

0

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.11%chance

19526223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1985

379

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

7.15%chance

11423240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4765

1348

Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?

May 29, 2:06 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.97%chance

8416100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1162

648

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.14%chance

10914299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3638

469

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

70.14%chance

768157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

893

Can NP-complete problems be solved in polynomial time?

Nov 23, 2:25 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.27%chance

336254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

925

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

Nov 18, 8:23 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

95.67%chance

215278

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4720

213

By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?

Jan 5, 10:58 AMJan 6, 6:29 PM

95.9%chance

394959

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3904

99

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

884

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