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Prediction markets for Canon

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.35%chance

4611855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4880

1150

Which new words will Anthropic use to name Claude models? (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, Fable, Mythos, ...)

Jun 14, 2:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

394973

OptionProbability

Claude Saga

Claude Odyssey

Claude Ballad

Claude Epic

Claude Anthology

Claude Novel

Claude … Quest, or Goliath

Canon

Claude Requiem

Claude Chronicle

Claude Parable

Claude … the name of a real (animal species, or settlement, or geological feature)

Claude Legend

Claude Allegory

Shannon

Claude Lore

Claude Tale

Claude Myth

31

24

23

18

18

18

16

16

16

15

14

12

11

10

9

4

2

1

Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026?

Nov 18, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

2.95%chance

244638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5391

632

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

Apr 9, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74072

OptionProbability

Silicon Data

Ornn

SemiAnalysis

SquareTower

Hyperbolic

Compute Exchange

Global Compute Index

Other

41

26

13

4

4

4

4

4

JRR Tolkien will be canonized by the Catholic Church by 2250

Jul 10, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.4%chance

211693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

969

Pope Francis considered for canonization by 2030?

May 9, 2:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.23%chance

15421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

71

Will the Catholic Church canonize Jose Luis Ricon as a saint by 2100?

Aug 31, 7:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.56%chance

4332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

368

61

Which approach(es) will lead to a viable theory of quantum gravity?

Aug 3, 1:12 AMAug 3, 1:09 AM

2140

OptionProbability

Gravitational path integral of metric field

Gravitational path integral of gauge variables (e.g., spinfoam models)

Causal set

AdS/CFT

Canonical loop quantum gravity

Quantum geometrodynamics

Gravity is not subject quantum mechanics

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

Will Vincent Weisser be canonized as a saint? (St. Weisser)

Mar 3, 4:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

70

How long to beat GTA VI (Main + Extra) on HowLongToBeat, as of end of 2026?

Jun 24, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Under 30h

30h to under 40h

40h to under 50h

50h to under 60h

60h to under 70h

70h to under 80h

80h to under 90h

90h to under 100h

100h or more

N/A — no qualifying value (see rules)

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

When will the Canon RF 35mm f/1.2 be available for purchase?

Feb 11, 8:26 AMJan 1, 6:32 AM

00

OptionProbability

March 2024

Other

50

50

Which Character from the Smash bros ultimate roster is the strongest canonically

Mar 18, 4:27 AM

90

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