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Prediction markets for Canon

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.75%chance

5415399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4013

1279

Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

54.69%chance

357891

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8174

1558

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

Apr 9, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

257836

OptionProbability

Compute Desk

Silicon Data

Ornn

SemiAnalysis

Other

SquareTower

Hyperbolic

Compute Exchange

Global Compute Index

46

21

10

8

5

2

2

2

2

Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026?

Nov 18, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

1.83%chance

247188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7941

572

Which new words will Anthropic use to name Claude models? (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, Fable, Mythos, ...)

Jun 14, 2:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

395794

OptionProbability

Claude Epic

Claude … the name of a real (animal species, or settlement, or geological feature)

Claude Saga

Canon

Claude … Quest, or Goliath

Claude Ballad

Claude Odyssey

Claude Parable

Claude Novel

Claude Legend

Claude Chronicle

Claude Allegory

Claude Anthology

Claude Requiem

Shannon

Claude Lore

Claude Tale

Claude Myth

23

23

19

17

16

16

15

13

12

11

11

10

9

8

7

4

3

2

JRR Tolkien will be canonized by the Catholic Church by 2250

Jul 10, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.4%chance

211693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

969

Pope Francis considered for canonization by 2030?

May 9, 2:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.48%chance

15431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Will the Catholic Church canonize Jose Luis Ricon as a saint by 2100?

Aug 31, 7:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.56%chance

4332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

368

61

Which approach(es) will lead to a viable theory of quantum gravity?

Aug 3, 1:12 AMAug 3, 1:09 AM

2140

OptionProbability

Gravitational path integral of metric field

Gravitational path integral of gauge variables (e.g., spinfoam models)

Causal set

AdS/CFT

Canonical loop quantum gravity

Quantum geometrodynamics

Gravity is not subject quantum mechanics

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

Will Vincent Weisser be canonized as a saint? (St. Weisser)

Mar 3, 4:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

70

When will the Canon RF 35mm f/1.2 be available for purchase?

Feb 11, 8:26 AMJan 1, 6:32 AM

00

OptionProbability

March 2024

Other

50

50

Which Character from the Smash bros ultimate roster is the strongest canonically

Mar 18, 4:27 AM

90

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