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Prediction markets for Capably

ECI 2026: Epoch Capabilities Index Highest Score

Dec 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4797480

OptionProbability

Above 160

Above 170

Above 180

Above 225

Above 200

Above 250

100

94

6

3

2

2

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19281731

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google

Other

Meta

DeepSeek

xAI

Alibaba

46

43

6

2

1

1

1

0

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6475919

OptionProbability

170-175

175-180

165-170

180-185

≥185

<155

155-160

160-165

66

19

6

4

2

1

1

1

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.44%chance

12638679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12739

8335

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.87%chance

10835737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3423

409

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

5.41%chance

11424490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6015

1265

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Oct 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.39%chance

899160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1084

825

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.77%chance

443827

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

635

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2028?

Jul 9, 11:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.63%chance

101101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1389

366

Will there be a plateau on the Epoch Capabilities Index before the end of 2027?

Oct 29, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.8%chance

5539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1339

747

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