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Prediction markets for Capably

ECI 2026: Epoch Capabilities Index Highest Score

Dec 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4697209

OptionProbability

Above 160

Above 170

Above 180

Above 225

Above 200

Above 250

100

86

6

3

2

2

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18571502

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

Other

Google

Meta

DeepSeek

Alibaba

55

38

2

2

1

1

1

1

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5168430

OptionProbability

170-175

175-180

165-170

180-185

≥185

<155

155-160

160-165

64

14

13

4

2

1

1

1

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.36%chance

12437063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14097

6644

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.25%chance

10032064

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4865

283

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

7.15%chance

11423240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4765

1348

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Oct 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.13%chance

888994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

819

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.87%chance

423741

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

632

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.73%chance

19813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

916

Will we discover a new planet capable of supporting human life by 2035?

Jan 11, 12:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.86%chance

14445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

849

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