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Prediction markets for Capably

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

59.91%chance

176211240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5780

3435

Will GPT-5 be capable of recursive self-improvement?

Mar 31, 6:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.96%chance

20993564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6295

577

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.03%chance

9525701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2522

563

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.18%chance

11121915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3515

1464

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

70%chance

9920833

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1486

1028

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?

Apr 1, 2:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.12%chance

5512961

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2155

621

Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 before 2026

Jan 3, 1:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69.35%chance

395882

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1616

325

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

413738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

629

Will OpenAI announce a multi-modal AI capable of any input-output modality combination by end of 2025? ($1000M subsidy)

Sep 25, 8:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

83.15%chance

382417

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1976

1683

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

Iran’s 60%+ enriched uranium stockpile and its capability to produce more both eliminated by June 2025 strikes?

Jun 22, 11:06 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

8%chance

91938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2500

62

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

48.71%chance

121255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10481

9520

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