DeepNewz, mobile.

People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.

Screenshot of DeepNewz app showing story detail view.

Screenshot of DeepNewz app showing story list view.

Capably News

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

59.04%chance

194268635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5839

3348

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.03%chance

9525701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2522

563

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.24%chance

10422599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11634

10188

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.02%chance

11121965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3565

1458

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?

Apr 1, 2:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.55%chance

5613045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2573

538

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Oct 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.7%chance

878914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1136

739

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

49.05%chance

125331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10411

9587

Will OpenAI announce a multi-modal AI capable of any input-output modality combination by end of 2025? ($1000M subsidy)

Sep 25, 8:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

11.64%chance

434143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3376

106

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

413738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

629

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

Iran’s 60%+ enriched uranium stockpile and its capability to produce more both eliminated by June 2025 strikes?

Jun 22, 11:06 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

8%chance

91938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2500

62

Will OpenAI pause capabilities R&D voluntarily before 2027?

Apr 22, 11:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.15%chance

14601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1057

Latest stories