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Prediction markets for Capably

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

65.56%chance

298534392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5399

4087

ECI 2026: Epoch Capabilities Index Highest Score

Dec 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3441256

OptionProbability

Above 160

Above 170

Above 180

Above 200

Above 225

Above 250

96

80

20

12

7

4

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.44%chance

12337037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14083

6658

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3228604

OptionProbability

170-175

175-180

165-170

180-185

≥185

160-165

<155

155-160

29

26

17

11

9

6

2

2

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.03%chance

9525701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2522

563

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

9.7%chance

11122065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3665

1447

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2914664

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

Anthropic

xAI

DeepSeek

Meta

Alibaba

Other

34

30

22

5

3

2

2

2

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?

Apr 1, 2:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

90%chance

5613141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3243

446

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Oct 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.9%chance

878964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

789

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.87%chance

423741

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

632

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

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