CapEx News

The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.

xAI IPO

FrontierMath Tier 1-3 >= 80%

FrontierMath Tier 4 >= 80%

An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance

OpenAI will introduce ads to ChatGPT in some form

ARC-AGI 3 Semi-private >= 50%

SSI will raise >= $1B in a funding round

OpenAI releases GPT-6

Anthropic releases Claude 5

Schmidhuber will complain about people not citing his work properly

OpenAI will announce some kind of hardware product

Zvi will write a blog post mentioning SSI

SSI will have an update listed at https://ssi.inc/updates

Thinking Machines will train and release their own model

Yudkowsky will publish a post on Lesswrong

A Solid Result in FrontierMath: Open Problems is solved by AI

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.

I will think that computer use has significantly improved since 2025

Jensen Huang continuously CEO of Nvidia through EOY 2026

Dario Amodei will continuously be CEO of Anthropic until the end of the year

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $1T

Ilya Sutskever will continuously be CEO of SSI until the end of the year

Nvidia will outperform the S&P

Microsoft+Google+Amazon+Meta capex will increase by >=30% vs 2025

The METR time horizon will exceed 20 hours

My median ASI timelines will shorten

Anthropic IPO

There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 170

The METR time horizon will exceed 40 hours

Ilya Sutskever will be on a podcast for more than 30 mins

Grok 5 will be released

SSI will raise >=$10B in a funding round

I will think that there has been significant progress towards models which use neuralese/recurrence

Google will outperform the S&P

An LLM will beat me at Shogi

I will think that METR time horizon continues to be an important benchmark

There will be clear evidence of egregious scheming in the wild

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $1,000/month.

Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP

Any of [OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Meta] claim to have reached AGI

Anthropic releases Claude 6

There will be an international treaty/agreement centered on AI

My P(doom) at EOY (resolves to %)

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-4

I will meet someone who has an AI companion

I will ride on a tesla robotaxi

An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters

SSI will release a product

At least 3 people will do an anti-AI hunger strike

I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning

An LLM will beat me at chess

The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e25 FLOP

Yann Lecun’s AMI lab will release an open weights model of some kind

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] will be acquired

The bubble collapses in devastating fashion

I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

Chatgpt will write an explicit sex story without jailbreaks

Metaculus will predict AGI before 2030

AAA with LLM powered NPCs releases on Steam

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-5

There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies

Thinking machines will post at least 10 blog posts at https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/

There will be an AI protest involving more than 100k people

There will be a credible leak about SSI strategy

I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 185

An open source model will top the Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category

OpenAI IPO

I will think that a model released by Meta is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 200

An AGI lab will be fined >= $10B

OpenAI will sell their own chips to external customers

SSI will be valued at >= $100B

Yudkowsky will publish a new book

Anthropic will introduce ads to Claude in some form

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e27 FLOP according to Epoch AI

US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI

Grok 6 will be released

China will invade Taiwan according to metaculus

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] releases an LLM (general-purpose or code-only) pretrained largely on licensed data

S&P 500 will fall by more than 50%

I will watch a fully AI-generated film lasting at least an hour

Anthropic will release an image/video model

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $5T

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $10,000/month.

I will think that SSI has the best coding model in the world for a period of at least a week

S&P 500 will rise by more than 50%

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e26 FLOP

SSI IPO

SSI will be valued at >= $1 T

OpenBrain Revenue 45bi 2026 Annual

Mainstream narrative shift

AIs can do everything taught by a CS degree

1e27 FLOP public model by EOY 2025

Major AI lab (OpenAI/Anthropic/xAI) announces 20%+ layoffs by end 2026

Nvidia stock lower on Dec 31, 2026 than Mar 8, 2026 close

Global AI capex growth under 40% YoY in 2026

Tesla Robotaxi Dies

Uber Dies

Moderately higher inflation (2.1%-3.0%)

Significantly higher inflation (>3.0%)

Minimal impact on inflation (2% or no mention of AI in Fed comms)

Significantly lower inflation (<1.5%)

YES

NO

NO

YES

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NO