CapEx News

The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.

xAI IPO

FrontierMath Tier 1-3 >= 80%

FrontierMath Tier 4 >= 80%

An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance

OpenAI will introduce ads to ChatGPT in some form

ARC-AGI 3 Semi-private >= 50%

SSI will raise >= $1B in a funding round

OpenAI releases GPT-6

Anthropic releases Claude 5

Schmidhuber will complain about people not citing his work properly

OpenAI will announce some kind of hardware product

Zvi will write a blog post mentioning SSI

SSI will have an update listed at https://ssi.inc/updates

Thinking Machines will train and release their own model

Yudkowsky will publish a post on Lesswrong

A Solid Result in FrontierMath: Open Problems is solved by AI

I will think that there has been significant progress towards models which use neuralese/recurrence

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $1T

Ilya Sutskever will continuously be CEO of SSI until the end of the year

I will think that computer use has significantly improved since 2025

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 170

Jensen Huang continuously CEO of Nvidia through EOY 2026

Dario Amodei will continuously be CEO of Anthropic until the end of the year

Microsoft+Google+Amazon+Meta capex will increase by >=30% vs 2025

My median ASI timelines will shorten

Anthropic IPO

Grok 5 will be released

The METR time horizon will exceed 20 hours

There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive

An LLM will beat me at chess

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-4

My P(doom) at EOY (resolves to %)

An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters

Ilya Sutskever will be on a podcast for more than 30 mins

There will be an international treaty/agreement centered on AI

There will be clear evidence of egregious scheming in the wild

SSI will release a product

Nvidia will outperform the S&P

An LLM will beat me at Shogi

I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning

The METR time horizon will exceed 40 hours

Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP

At least 3 people will do an anti-AI hunger strike

I will think that METR time horizon continues to be an important benchmark

Anthropic releases Claude 6

I will meet someone who has an AI companion

I will ride on a tesla robotaxi

The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china

Any of [OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Meta] claim to have reached AGI

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e25 FLOP

Google will outperform the S&P

Yann Lecun’s AMI lab will release an open weights model of some kind

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] will be acquired

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 185

Chatgpt will write an explicit sex story without jailbreaks

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-5

There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies

Metaculus will predict AGI before 2030

AAA with LLM powered NPCs releases on Steam

SSI will raise >=$10B in a funding round

Thinking machines will post at least 10 blog posts at https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/

There will be an AI protest involving more than 100k people

There will be a credible leak about SSI strategy

I will watch a fully AI-generated film lasting at least an hour

I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting

An open source model will top the Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category

I will think that a model released by Meta is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

The bubble collapses in devastating fashion

Anthropic will release an image/video model

SSI will be valued at >= $100B

An AGI lab will be fined >= $10B

OpenAI will sell their own chips to external customers

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 200

Anthropic will introduce ads to Claude in some form

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e27 FLOP according to Epoch AI

US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI

Grok 6 will be released

China will invade Taiwan according to metaculus

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] releases an LLM (general-purpose or code-only) pretrained largely on licensed data

S&P 500 will fall by more than 50%

I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $5T

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $1,000/month.

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $10,000/month.

I will think that SSI has the best coding model in the world for a period of at least a week

S&P 500 will rise by more than 50%

OpenAI IPO

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e26 FLOP

The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked

Yudkowsky will publish a new book

SSI IPO

SSI will be valued at >= $1 T

OpenBrain Revenue 45bi 2026 Annual

Mainstream narrative shift

AIs can do everything taught by a CS degree

1e27 FLOP public model by EOY 2025

Major AI lab (OpenAI/Anthropic/xAI) announces 20%+ layoffs by end 2026

Nvidia stock lower on Dec 31, 2026 than Mar 8, 2026 close

Global AI capex growth under 40% YoY in 2026

Tesla Robotaxi Dies

Uber Dies

Moderately higher inflation (2.1%-3.0%)

Significantly higher inflation (>3.0%)

Minimal impact on inflation (2% or no mention of AI in Fed comms)

Moderately lower inflation (1.5%-1.9%)

Will global annual data center capital expenditure exceed $1.4 trillion in 2027?

Will YoY OpenRouter token volume growth at EOY 2027 exceed 1500%?

Will OpenAI and Anthropic's combined calendar-year 2028 revenue exceed twice their combined calendar-year 2027 revenue?

YES

NO

NO

YES

NO

NO