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Prediction markets for Capital

Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?

Mar 9, 11:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.62%chance

5411110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6126

3286

Will Trump visit Moscow (capital of Russia) in 2026

Jan 1, 7:46 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

7.03%chance

335153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3636

275

Will there be any tax on unrealized capital gains in the USA before eoy2028?

Aug 20, 7:23 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

11.75%chance

334649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2741

365

🏛💸Capital Gains Tax Increase Before 2027? (USA)

Apr 19, 12:49 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

6.12%chance

213714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4025

330

Will any UN country change its capital city before the year 2030?

Jun 30, 2:38 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

87.95%chance

173455

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2236

681

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

Will NYC become the new tech capital of the United States by 2030?

Nov 19, 3:41 PMDec 30, 3:00 PM

7.26%chance

463037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2269

821

Will the cover of @RichardHanania 's new book on elite human capital have a trans woman on it?

Dec 16, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.04%chance

161616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

887

Capitalism and liberal democracy are going to be doing fine (or well) in 2030

Jan 6, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.64%chance

371499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

798

Will Situational Awareness LP raise fresh capital after its July 2026 unwind?

Jul 30, 3:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.72%chance

41431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2354

425

Will Airbyte ever raise another round of capital?

Jun 14, 3:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

11000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will "Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 3:14 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.86%chance

2250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

881

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