Capital Economics News

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

4710036

OptionVotes

YES

1884

531

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

YES

1009

979

Stock: Which Economic System is better: Capitalism (BUY) or Socialism (SHORT)?

Jun 4, 10:47 PMJun 5, 4:59 AM

14999

OptionProbability

YES

557

199

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

1528

655

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.25%chance

18894

OptionVotes

YES

1259

922

If Russia secures a substantively pro-Russian ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes? [add responses]

Feb 22, 7:44 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

16559

OptionProbability

Ukraine runs out of soldiers - further mobilization not feasible

Western aid shortage / economic collapse in Ukraine

Decisive Russian military victory

Trump wins US elections and forces Ukraine to cede territories

Black swan geopolitical events 🦢

Collapse of Ukraine's government

What will be the population of Canada in the year 2030?

Aug 1, 9:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.06%chance

12539

OptionProbability

YES

1087

906

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.83%chance

10525

OptionVotes

YES

1282

780

Will Crossrail 2 be approved before 2030?

May 1, 8:34 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

32.85%chance

8196

OptionVotes

YES

123

Who is the antichrist?

Aug 21, 1:45 PMJan 1, 2:40 PM

13195

OptionProbability

Sam Altman

Peter Thiel

the antichrist

Any political or economic abstraction, such as "the state" or "capitalism"

Other

Artificial superintelligence (any)

Donald Trump

The emperor Nero

Aleister Crowley

Elon Musk

Anyone who denies the Father and the Son (1 John 2:22)

The Pope (any)

proto-gnostics in ancient Ephesus

Mark Zuckerberg

My vegetarian friend who only eats meat once a year on Good Friday

Will Venezuela continue submissive to american demands in 2026?

Jan 14, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.61%chance

8111

OptionVotes

YES

171

Will the PRC terminate ECFA before 2028?

Jan 20, 5:27 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

49.14%chance

312

OptionVotes

YES

100

Capital Economics News

Prediction markets for Capital Economics

Prediction markets for Capital Economics

Prediction markets for Capital Economics

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Stock: Which Economic System is better: Capitalism (BUY) or Socialism (SHORT)?

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

If Russia secures a substantively pro-Russian ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes? [add responses]

What will be the population of Canada in the year 2030?

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Will Crossrail 2 be approved before 2030?

Who is the antichrist?

Will Venezuela continue submissive to american demands in 2026?

Will the PRC terminate ECFA before 2028?

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