Capital Economics News

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.47%chance

349106246

OptionVotes

YES

2102

476

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

YES

1009

979

By what year will I have virtually no human capital left?

Feb 17, 7:14 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

211453

OptionProbability

>=2035

2032

2033

2034

2031

2029

2030

2028

2027

<=2025

2026

Stock: Which Economic System is better: Capitalism (BUY) or Socialism (SHORT)?

Jun 4, 10:47 PMJun 5, 4:59 AM

14999

OptionProbability

YES

557

199

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.32%chance

12941

OptionVotes

YES

1553

644

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.25%chance

18894

OptionVotes

YES

1259

922

Will OpenAI go public in 2026?

Jan 13, 7:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38%chance

17649

OptionVotes

YES

128

What will be the population of Canada in the year 2030?

Aug 1, 9:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.06%chance

12539

OptionProbability

YES

1087

906

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.83%chance

10525

OptionVotes

YES

1282

780

Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.67%chance

9226

OptionVotes

YES

101

Will Crossrail 2 be approved before 2030?

May 1, 8:34 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

32.85%chance

8196

OptionVotes

YES

123

Who is the antichrist?

Aug 21, 1:45 PMJan 1, 2:40 PM

13195

OptionProbability

Sam Altman

Peter Thiel

the antichrist

Any political or economic abstraction, such as "the state" or "capitalism"

Other

Artificial superintelligence (any)

Donald Trump

The emperor Nero

Aleister Crowley

Elon Musk

Anyone who denies the Father and the Son (1 John 2:22)

The Pope (any)

proto-gnostics in ancient Ephesus

Mark Zuckerberg

My vegetarian friend who only eats meat once a year on Good Friday

Capital Economics News

Prediction markets for Capital Economics

Prediction markets for Capital Economics

Prediction markets for Capital Economics

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

By what year will I have virtually no human capital left?

Stock: Which Economic System is better: Capitalism (BUY) or Socialism (SHORT)?

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Will OpenAI go public in 2026?

What will be the population of Canada in the year 2030?

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?

Will Crossrail 2 be approved before 2030?

Who is the antichrist?

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