Capital Economics News

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

YES

1009

979

By what year will I have virtually no human capital left?

Feb 17, 7:14 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

211453

OptionProbability

>=2035

2032

2033

2034

2031

2029

2030

2028

2027

<=2025

2026

Stock: Which Economic System is better: Capitalism (BUY) or Socialism (SHORT)?

Jun 4, 10:47 PMJun 5, 4:59 AM

14999

OptionProbability

YES

557

199

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

1528

655

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.25%chance

18894

OptionVotes

YES

1259

922

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.2%chance

9515

OptionVotes

YES

1272

786

If Russia secures a substantively pro-Russian ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes? [add responses]

Feb 22, 7:44 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

15444

OptionProbability

Western aid shortage / economic collapse in Ukraine

Black swan geopolitical events 🦢

Trump wins US elections and forces Ukraine to cede territories

Decisive Russian military victory

Ukraine runs out of soldiers - further mobilization not feasible

Collapse of Ukraine's government

What will be the population of Canada in the year 2030?

Aug 1, 9:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.89%chance

11439

OptionProbability

YES

1013

987

Will there be a recession in the U.S. in 2025?

May 27, 3:37 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

15.36%chance

9366

OptionVotes

YES

235

Will Crossrail 2 be approved before 2030?

May 1, 8:34 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

25.84%chance

7126

OptionVotes

YES

147

Will the PRC terminate ECFA before 2028?

Jan 20, 5:27 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

49.64%chance

311

OptionVotes

YES

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

310

Capital Economics News

Prediction markets for Capital Economics

Prediction markets for Capital Economics

Prediction markets for Capital Economics

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

By what year will I have virtually no human capital left?

Stock: Which Economic System is better: Capitalism (BUY) or Socialism (SHORT)?

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

If Russia secures a substantively pro-Russian ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes? [add responses]

What will be the population of Canada in the year 2030?

Will there be a recession in the U.S. in 2025?

Will Crossrail 2 be approved before 2030?

Will the PRC terminate ECFA before 2028?

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

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