Capital Market News

YES

NO

YES

NO

Anthropic or Meta release a new model

Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%

Sam Altman still CEO through end of month

noam chomsky alive until end of month

large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement

trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times

nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain

Israeli startup acquired at a price higher than $1b

dick cheney still alive at end of month

$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

major tech company merger/acquisition announced

earthquake 7.0+ magnitude

nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once

usa bombs or missle strikes syria

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran

twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)

trump leaves usa at least once

web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month

NASDAQ hits an all time high

An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced

Volcano dormant for half a year erupts

earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher

at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates

usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon

spacex launches 15 or more rockets

usa troops enter syria

a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement

china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death

American airstrike or drone strike or missile strike on Mexico

usa troops enter lebanon

New nominal US$ market capitalization record for the largest company in the history of the world

ukraine russia ceasefire

starship launch

Bitcoin hits 100K

New Half-Life game announced

bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day

another indictment or charges announced against trump

YES

Bitcoin

Other

Ethereum

Solana

Cardano

Binance Coin

EU Parliament gets right of Legislative Initiative

Broad consensus on CMU (Capital Markets Union) completion

EU institution controlling an army of over 20,000 personnel

EU-wide UBI

S&D becoming the largest group in the EP

EU Parliament gaining full co-decision powers on all EU legislation

(to be resolved N/A)

A new Treaty will reform the EU constitution (as Lisbon or Maastricht Treaties did)

Abolition of unanimity in foreign policy

Direct election of the Commission President by the population

At least 1/3 of the Parliament elected on Union-wide lists

EU overtaking the USA in GDP (PPP)

EU achieving net-zero carbon emissions

Abolished Daylight Saving Time

EU institution controlling an army of over 100,000 personnel

Nuclear weapons under the control of an EU institution

EU-wide minimum wage

Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

We will interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today.

AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

“Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

YES

YES

2025-2026.54

2026.54-2028.08

2028.08-2029.62

2029.62-2031.16

2031.16-2032.7

2032.7-2034.24

2034.24-2035.78

2035.78-2037.32

2037.32-2038.86

2038.86-2040.4

2040.4-2041.94

2041.94-2043.48

2043.48-2045.02

2045.02-2046.56

2046.56-2048.1

2048.1-2049.64

2049.64-2051.18

2051.18-2052.72

2052.72-2054.26

2054.26-2055.8

2055.8-2057.34

2057.34-2058.88

2058.88-2060.42

2060.42-2061.96

2061.96-2063.5

2063.5-2065.04

2065.04-2066.58

2066.58-2068.12

2068.12-2069.66

2069.66-2071.2

2071.2-2072.74

2072.74-2074.28

2074.28-2075.82

2075.82-2077.36

2077.36-2078.9

2078.9-2080.44

2080.44-2081.98

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2083.52-2085.06

2085.06-2086.6

2086.6-2088.14

2088.14-2089.68

2089.68-2091.22

2091.22-2092.76

2092.76-2094.3

2094.3-2095.84

2095.84-2097.38

2097.38-2098.92

2098.92-2100.46