Capital Markets and Securities News

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Mar 15, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22457255

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Reza Pahlavi

Hassan Rouhani

No Head Of State

Ahmad Vahidi

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

Ali Larijani

Masoud Pezeshkian

Maryam Rajavi

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Sadegh Larijani

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Abbas Araghchi

Mohammad Khatami

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Donald Trump

Hassan Shariatmadari

Marco Rubio

Nasir Hosseini

Navid Shomali

Mohamed Amin

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

Jun 9, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.16%chance

4344500

OptionVotes

YES

128439

102675

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

94872

OptionProbability

Gallium

Neodymium

Germanium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029?

Aug 1, 2:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.53%chance

264180

OptionVotes

YES

2097

477

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

YES

1159

926

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

May 25, 8:51 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

10.1%chance

131703

OptionVotes

YES

1764

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Jun 16, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

121262

OptionVotes

YES

2005

499

Will the deadline for deferring capital gains using qualified opportunity zone funds be extended?

Aug 23, 12:31 AMSep 23, 3:59 AM

9.44%chance

31175

OptionVotes

YES

1634

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

May 25, 12:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

82.42%chance

12759

OptionVotes

YES

217

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before Jan 20, 2031

May 14, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.41%chance

14649

OptionVotes

YES

1478

677

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Jan 6, 7:42 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

10170

OptionProbability

Partial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028

No - Yemen is unified under single internationally recognized government by EOY 2028

Yes - Multiple independent states emerge (South Arabia, Houthi state, others) by EOY 2028

Which of these AI companies will shut down first?

Nov 3, 2:52 PMDec 31, 2:48 PM

562

OptionProbability

Perplexity

xAI

Other

OpenAI

Anthropic

Capital Markets and Securities News

Prediction markets for Capital Markets and Securities

Prediction markets for Capital Markets and Securities

Prediction markets for Capital Markets and Securities

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029?

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Will the deadline for deferring capital gains using qualified opportunity zone funds be extended?

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before Jan 20, 2031

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Which of these AI companies will shut down first?

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