Capital Markets Authority News

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Mar 15, 2:52 AMMar 23, 11:59 PM

12119914

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Reza Pahlavi

Hassan Rouhani

No Head Of State

Masoud Pezeshkian

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

Sadegh Larijani

Maryam Rajavi

Ali Larijani

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Abbas Araghchi

Ahmad Vahidi

Mohammad Khatami

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Donald Trump

Hassan Shariatmadari

Marco Rubio

Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?

Mar 9, 11:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.62%chance

5411110

OptionVotes

YES

6126

3286

Will Trump visit Moscow (capital of Russia) in 2026

Jan 1, 7:46 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

12.92%chance

314098

OptionVotes

YES

2597

385

Will Mexico still host all of the planned FIFA World Cup games this year?

Feb 25, 3:58 AMJul 20, 10:59 PM

87.09%chance

544094

OptionVotes

YES

10078

9989

On 1 April 2026: who is the de facto executive authority in Caracas?

Jan 3, 10:34 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

183920

OptionProbability

United Socialist Party of Venezuela Representative

Opposition representative

Military junta

Contested/dual power/civil war

US Government

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

May 25, 12:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.87%chance

8731

OptionVotes

YES

257

Will Myanmar's military junta lose power before 2030?

Dec 4, 1:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.21%chance

4307

OptionVotes

YES

1183

931

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4216

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

Will Venezuela continue submissive to american demands in 2026?

Jan 14, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.66%chance

8140

OptionVotes

YES

135

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Jan 6, 7:42 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

687

OptionProbability

Partial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028

No - Yemen is unified under single internationally recognized government by EOY 2028

Yes - Multiple independent states emerge (South Arabia, Houthi state, others) by EOY 2028

Now Amazon buys Konami on 2034!

Feb 10, 2:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.08%chance

360

OptionVotes

YES

120

Capital Markets Authority News

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Authority

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Authority

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Authority

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?

Will Trump visit Moscow (capital of Russia) in 2026

Will Mexico still host all of the planned FIFA World Cup games this year?

On 1 April 2026: who is the de facto executive authority in Caracas?

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

Will Myanmar's military junta lose power before 2030?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Will Venezuela continue submissive to american demands in 2026?

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Now Amazon buys Konami on 2034!

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