Capital Markets Authority News

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Mar 15, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22457226

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Reza Pahlavi

Hassan Rouhani

No Head Of State

Ahmad Vahidi

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

Mohamed Amin

Ali Larijani

Masoud Pezeshkian

Maryam Rajavi

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Sadegh Larijani

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Abbas Araghchi

Mohammad Khatami

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Donald Trump

Hassan Shariatmadari

Marco Rubio

Nasir Hosseini

Navid Shomali

Will Trump visit Moscow (capital of Russia) in 2026

Jan 1, 7:46 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

6.93%chance

355183

OptionVotes

YES

3666

273

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

May 25, 8:51 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

10.1%chance

131703

OptionVotes

YES

1764

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Jun 16, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

121262

OptionVotes

YES

2005

499

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

May 25, 12:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

82.42%chance

12759

OptionVotes

YES

217

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

YES

1319

797

Will Myanmar's military junta lose power before 2030?

Dec 4, 1:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.3%chance

6449

OptionVotes

YES

1272

902

Will Venezuela continue submissive to american demands in 2026?

Jan 14, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.66%chance

11431

OptionVotes

YES

355

Will Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle report combined 2027 capital expenditure above $600B?

Aug 15, 3:47 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

90%chance

5255

OptionVotes

YES

300

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4251

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Jan 6, 7:42 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

10170

OptionProbability

Partial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028

No - Yemen is unified under single internationally recognized government by EOY 2028

Yes - Multiple independent states emerge (South Arabia, Houthi state, others) by EOY 2028

Now Amazon buys Konami on 2034!

Feb 10, 2:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.48%chance

4117

OptionVotes

YES

112

Capital Markets Authority News

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Authority

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Authority

Prediction markets for Capital Markets Authority

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Will Trump visit Moscow (capital of Russia) in 2026

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Will Myanmar's military junta lose power before 2030?

Will Venezuela continue submissive to american demands in 2026?

Will Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle report combined 2027 capital expenditure above $600B?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Now Amazon buys Konami on 2034!

Latest stories