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Top stories

New York AG Sues Zelle Operator Over Alleged $1 Billion Fraud

New York AG Sues Zelle Operator Over Alleged $1 Billion Fraud

Authors

30

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Capital One

Will there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election?

Oct 17, 1:16 AMJan 10, 11:59 PM

4.64%chance

169108657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

93625

5530

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.29%chance

6420347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

542

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.07%chance

347402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

688

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.03%chance

302990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

905

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.18%chance

19899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

921

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.83%chance

10525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

780

Will California courts sentence anyone to death in 2027?

Nov 6, 5:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.51%chance

11376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1348

742

Will Houston -> Austin become an Interstate Highway by 2040?

Nov 30, 1:41 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

38.09%chance

2373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

What will be the value of Capital One Rewards Points at the end of 2026?

Sep 28, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1260

OptionProbability

1.80 - 1.99

Below 1.80

2.00 - 2.19

2.20 - 2.29

2.30+

35

27

27

7

4

Which app will be #1 on Apple's US Top Free iPhone chart on November 15, 2026?

Oct 21, 3:13 PMNov 15, 6:00 PM

6225

OptionProbability

Other

TikTok (any TikTok Ltd app)

Muse from Meta

ChatGPT

Capital One Mobile

Google Gemini

Claude by Anthropic

Temu

Threads

25

20

17

9

8

6

6

5

4

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