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Top stories

New York AG Sues Zelle Operator Over Alleged $1 Billion Fraud

New York AG Sues Zelle Operator Over Alleged $1 Billion Fraud

Authors

30

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Capital One

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.06%chance

5716388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1784

561

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

325852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

735

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.08%chance

241733

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

921

Will I launch a startup by the end of 2026?

Jun 18, 3:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.7%chance

251636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1730

753

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will Denmark implement a wealth tax by end of 2027?

Mar 18, 10:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.16%chance

71278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2278

439

Will Manifold implement "resolves-to-multiple" Multiple Choice markets before 2027?

Nov 1, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.06%chance

41271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2205

453

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.18%chance

19899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

921

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.83%chance

10525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

780

Will Houston -> Austin become an Interstate Highway by 2040?

Nov 30, 1:41 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

38.09%chance

2373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

What will be the value of Capital One Rewards Points at the end of 2026?

Sep 28, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1260

OptionProbability

1.80 - 1.99

Below 1.80

2.00 - 2.19

2.20 - 2.29

2.30+

35

27

27

7

4

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