Capital Power News

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Mar 15, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22457701

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

Reza Pahlavi

Hassan Rouhani

No Head Of State

Ahmad Vahidi

Mohamed Amin

Ali Larijani

Masoud Pezeshkian

Maryam Rajavi

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Sadegh Larijani

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Abbas Araghchi

Mohammad Khatami

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Donald Trump

Hassan Shariatmadari

Marco Rubio

Nasir Hosseini

Navid Shomali

Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?

Jan 22, 7:34 PMJan 7, 4:59 AM

36.34%chance

9014879

OptionVotes

YES

1041

962

Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 2:44 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

5.36%chance

567211

OptionVotes

YES

4200

238

Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?

Jan 26, 7:04 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

56.45%chance

424113

OptionVotes

YES

1117

891

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

YES

1017

852

Will Myanmar's military junta lose power before 2030?

Dec 4, 1:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.3%chance

6449

OptionVotes

YES

1272

902

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2033?

Mar 12, 11:05 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

20.1%chance

10447

OptionVotes

YES

252

111

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2031?

Mar 4, 10:42 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

12.07%chance

8400

OptionVotes

YES

400

108

Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?

Apr 1, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

8261

OptionVotes

YES

200

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Jan 6, 7:42 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

10170

OptionProbability

Partial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028

No - Yemen is unified under single internationally recognized government by EOY 2028

Yes - Multiple independent states emerge (South Arabia, Houthi state, others) by EOY 2028

Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?

May 19, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.27%chance

9157

OptionVotes

YES

236

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Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?

Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?

Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Will Myanmar's military junta lose power before 2030?

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2033?

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2031?

Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?

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