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Prediction markets for Capital Power

Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?

Jan 22, 7:34 PMJan 7, 4:59 AM

37.06%chance

8013858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

973

Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 2:44 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

15.47%chance

535363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2338

428

On 1 April 2026: who is the de facto executive authority in Caracas?

Jan 3, 10:34 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

183920

OptionProbability

United Socialist Party of Venezuela Representative

Opposition representative

Military junta

Contested/dual power/civil war

US Government

93

2

2

2

2

Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?

Jan 26, 7:04 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

68.09%chance

383638

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

698

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will Myanmar's junta still be in control of Myanmar through 2026?

Dec 2, 2:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93.82%chance

121021

OptionVotes

NO

YES

390

26

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2032?

Mar 9, 11:53 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

12.74%chance

9672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

443

136

Will Hanoi ban gas powered bikes within Ring Roads 1 within one year?

Jul 15, 10:32 PMJul 15, 10:28 PM

49.66%chance

3661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

993

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2031?

Mar 4, 10:42 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.37%chance

7370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

370

113

Will Myanmar's military junta lose power before 2030?

Dec 4, 1:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.21%chance

4307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1183

931

Now Google buys Dave & Buster’s in 2036

Feb 10, 3:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.23%chance

2160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

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