Capital Power News

Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?

Jan 22, 7:34 PMJan 7, 4:59 AM

37.06%chance

8013858

OptionVotes

YES

1021

973

Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 2:44 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

15.27%chance

535367

OptionVotes

YES

2355

425

Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?

Jan 26, 7:04 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

69.56%chance

393689

OptionVotes

YES

1490

674

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

YES

1017

852

Google, Amazon, Meta & Microsoft Total Capex for 2027

Feb 7, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61021

OptionProbability

800 Billion +

600-800 Billion

400-599 Billion

>400 Billion

Will Hanoi ban gas powered bikes within Ring Roads 1 within one year?

Jul 15, 10:32 PMJul 15, 10:28 PM

49.66%chance

3661

OptionVotes

YES

1007

993

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2031?

Mar 4, 10:42 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.37%chance

7370

OptionVotes

YES

370

113

Will Myanmar's military junta lose power before 2030?

Dec 4, 1:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.21%chance

4307

OptionVotes

YES

1183

931

Now Google buys Dave & Buster’s in 2036

Feb 10, 3:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.23%chance

2160

OptionVotes

YES

133

Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?

Apr 1, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.58%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

180

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Jan 6, 7:42 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

687

OptionProbability

Partial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028

No - Yemen is unified under single internationally recognized government by EOY 2028

Yes - Multiple independent states emerge (South Arabia, Houthi state, others) by EOY 2028

Capital Power News

Prediction markets for Capital Power

Prediction markets for Capital Power

Prediction markets for Capital Power

Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?

Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?

Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Google, Amazon, Meta & Microsoft Total Capex for 2027

Will Hanoi ban gas powered bikes within Ring Roads 1 within one year?

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2031?

Will Myanmar's military junta lose power before 2030?

Now Google buys Dave & Buster’s in 2036

Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

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