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Prediction markets for Capital Power

Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2025?

Dec 8, 12:16 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

6.88%chance

8734934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3680

272

Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 2:44 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

20.35%chance

515004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1979

505

Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in charge at the end of his term?

Jan 26, 7:04 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

63.72%chance

353057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

768

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

What stake will OpenAI's non-profit have in its for-profit arm, if restructured?

Jan 3, 5:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42455

OptionProbability

Fraction of voting shares allocated to non-profit

Fraction of shares allocated to non-profit

Fraction of profit allocated to non-profit

34

25

14

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2032?

Mar 9, 11:53 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

12.74%chance

9672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

443

136

Will Hanoi ban gas powered bikes within Ring Roads 1 within one year?

Jul 15, 10:32 PMJul 15, 10:28 PM

49.66%chance

3661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

993

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2031?

Mar 4, 10:42 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.37%chance

7370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

370

113

Will Avalanche Energy deliver a prototype of next-gen space propulsion for qualification testing by 12/31/2025?

Aug 10, 9:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6.34%chance

7275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

333

38

Will Myanmar's military junta lose power before 2030?

Dec 4, 1:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.88%chance

4165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

955

Will Myanmar's junta still be in control of Myanmar through 2026?

Dec 2, 2:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.31%chance

6135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

190

53

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