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Prediction markets for Capital Power

Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?

Jan 22, 7:34 PMJan 7, 4:59 AM

38.87%chance

8213887

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

974

Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 2:44 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

14.92%chance

545400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2388

419

Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?

Jan 26, 7:04 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

69.56%chance

393689

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1490

674

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will Hanoi ban gas powered bikes within Ring Roads 1 within one year?

Jul 15, 10:32 PMJul 15, 10:28 PM

9.96%chance

42661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3007

333

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2033?

Mar 12, 11:05 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

18.66%chance

10407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

267

108

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2031?

Mar 4, 10:42 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.37%chance

7370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

370

113

Will Myanmar's military junta lose power before 2030?

Dec 4, 1:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.21%chance

4307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1183

931

Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?

Apr 1, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

8261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Now Google buys Dave & Buster’s in 2036

Feb 10, 3:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.23%chance

2160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?

May 19, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.2%chance

7145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

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