CARE News

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4574069

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

YES

1575

790

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

6132

3376

Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030?

Apr 22, 4:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.27%chance

372217

OptionVotes

YES

1217

869

Will there be a robot caregiver that can take care of a person 80+ years old w/o assistance by end of 2040?

Feb 3, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

80.17%chance

32954

OptionVotes

YES

1302

883

Will over 50% of US trans youth live in states banning medically recommended care (incl. HRT, blockers) by end-2028?

Jun 4, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.64%chance

15890

OptionVotes

YES

1457

488

Which Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) provisions will survive until 2029?

Jul 3, 9:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5852

OptionProbability

Dependents can stay on parents' insurance until age 26

Guaranteed issue (protection from discrimination by insurers for preexisting conditions)

Per-state insurance exchanges

Nutrition labelling requirements

Prescription drugs as essential services (must be covered by insurance)

No deductibles/co-pay for vaccinations

Medicaid expansion

Bundled payments for Medicare

Coverage for contraceptive methods

Premium subsidies for households between 100-400% of federal poverty level using insurance exchanges

Employer mandate for businesses with >50 employees

States may require abortion care coverage

Will more than 30 doctors be criminally charged for providing life/health of the mother abortion-related care by 2030?

Dec 18, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.1%chance

5606

OptionVotes

YES

1422

703

Will the careful contingency handling in "When will the U.S. elect it's first female President?" be relevant?

Aug 5, 2:16 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

12.31%chance

11242

OptionVotes

YES

1058

970

Will ASI (if it exist and doesn’t wipe out humanity) care about people’s social relationships?

Jul 29, 12:07 AMJan 1, 1:04 AM

55.4%chance

6231

OptionVotes

YES

1154

937

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?

Jul 28, 11:38 PMJan 1, 12:33 AM

48.88%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

1023

978

By 2035, will AI+robotics make it possible to have kids without taking care of them? (esp if the parents have ADHD?)

Apr 12, 2:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.15%chance

553

OptionVotes

YES

157

111

CARE News

Prediction markets for CARE

Prediction markets for CARE

Prediction markets for CARE

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030?

Will there be a robot caregiver that can take care of a person 80+ years old w/o assistance by end of 2040?

Will over 50% of US trans youth live in states banning medically recommended care (incl. HRT, blockers) by end-2028?

Which Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) provisions will survive until 2029?

Will more than 30 doctors be criminally charged for providing life/health of the mother abortion-related care by 2030?

Will the careful contingency handling in "When will the U.S. elect it's first female President?" be relevant?

Will ASI (if it exist and doesn’t wipe out humanity) care about people’s social relationships?

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?

By 2035, will AI+robotics make it possible to have kids without taking care of them? (esp if the parents have ADHD?)

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