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Prediction markets for CARE

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47106751

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

39

29

23

9

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1575

790

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030?

Apr 22, 4:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.27%chance

372217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

869

Will there be a robot caregiver that can take care of a person 80+ years old w/o assistance by end of 2040?

Feb 3, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

80.17%chance

32954

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1302

883

Will over 50% of US trans youth live in states banning medically recommended care (incl. HRT, blockers) by end-2028?

Jun 4, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.64%chance

15890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1457

488

Will more than 30 doctors be criminally charged for providing life/health of the mother abortion-related care by 2030?

Dec 18, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.1%chance

5606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1422

703

Will it be fashionable to care about money in 10 years?

Dec 26, 1:29 PMDec 26, 4:59 AM

69.44%chance

7332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

681

54

Will the careful contingency handling in "When will the U.S. elect it's first female President?" be relevant?

Aug 5, 2:16 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

12.31%chance

11242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1058

970

Will ASI (if it exist and doesn’t wipe out humanity) care about people’s social relationships?

Jul 29, 12:07 AMJan 1, 1:04 AM

55.4%chance

6231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

937

Will NICE recommend randomisation as standard care for any condition

Jan 1, 10:36 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

3155

OptionProbability

before 2028

before 2027

before 2026

50

37

0

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?

Jul 28, 11:38 PMJan 1, 12:33 AM

48.88%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

978

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