CARE News

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3348416

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

Jan 23, 12:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.46%chance

1910420

OptionVotes

YES

17436

7002

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.28%chance

595993

OptionVotes

YES

2816

612

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

6132

3376

Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care by 2025?

Apr 22, 4:24 AMDec 22, 7:59 AM

2.44%chance

322931

OptionVotes

YES

3471

836

Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030?

Apr 22, 4:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.36%chance

352117

OptionVotes

YES

1117

917

Will there be a robot caregiver that can take care of a person 80+ years old w/o assistance by end of 2040?

Feb 3, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

80.17%chance

32954

OptionVotes

YES

1302

883

Which Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) provisions will survive until 2029?

Jul 3, 9:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5852

OptionProbability

Dependents can stay on parents' insurance until age 26

Guaranteed issue (protection from discrimination by insurers for preexisting conditions)

Per-state insurance exchanges

Nutrition labelling requirements

Prescription drugs as essential services (must be covered by insurance)

No deductibles/co-pay for vaccinations

Medicaid expansion

Bundled payments for Medicare

Coverage for contraceptive methods

Premium subsidies for households between 100-400% of federal poverty level using insurance exchanges

Employer mandate for businesses with >50 employees

States may require abortion care coverage

Will over 50% of US trans youth live in states banning medically recommended care (incl. HRT, blockers) by end-2028?

Jun 4, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.56%chance

14740

OptionVotes

YES

1307

607

Will the careful contingency handling in "When will the U.S. elect it's first female President?" be relevant?

Aug 5, 2:16 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

12.31%chance

11242

OptionVotes

YES

1058

970

Will ASI (if it exist and doesn’t wipe out humanity) care about people’s social relationships?

Jul 29, 12:07 AMJan 1, 1:04 AM

54.95%chance

5221

OptionVotes

YES

1104

905

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?

Jul 28, 11:38 PMJan 1, 12:33 AM

49.87%chance

359

OptionVotes

YES

1003

997

CARE News

Prediction markets for CARE

Prediction markets for CARE

Prediction markets for CARE

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care by 2025?

Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030?

Will there be a robot caregiver that can take care of a person 80+ years old w/o assistance by end of 2040?

Which Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) provisions will survive until 2029?

Will over 50% of US trans youth live in states banning medically recommended care (incl. HRT, blockers) by end-2028?

Will the careful contingency handling in "When will the U.S. elect it's first female President?" be relevant?

Will ASI (if it exist and doesn’t wipe out humanity) care about people’s social relationships?

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?

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