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Prediction markets for CARE

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3757067

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

32

28

25

15

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

Jan 23, 12:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.25%chance

2951670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

50912

3525

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.48%chance

606043

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2866

607

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care by 2025?

Apr 22, 4:24 AMDec 22, 7:59 AM

2.39%chance

352996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3536

835

Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030?

Apr 22, 4:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.77%chance

362167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

892

Will there be a robot caregiver that can take care of a person 80+ years old w/o assistance by end of 2040?

Feb 3, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

80.17%chance

32954

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1302

883

Will over 50% of US trans youth live in states banning medically recommended care (incl. HRT, blockers) by end-2028?

Jun 4, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.08%chance

15840

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1407

523

Will the careful contingency handling in "When will the U.S. elect it's first female President?" be relevant?

Aug 5, 2:16 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

12.31%chance

11242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1058

970

Will ASI (if it exist and doesn’t wipe out humanity) care about people’s social relationships?

Jul 29, 12:07 AMJan 1, 1:04 AM

55.4%chance

6231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

937

By the end of 2026, will I care about any Manifold market about Jose Luis Ricon?

Aug 17, 1:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.66%chance

8154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?

Jul 28, 11:38 PMJan 1, 12:33 AM

48.88%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

978

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