CARES Act News

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

Jan 23, 12:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.46%chance

1910420

OptionVotes

YES

17436

7002

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

9916

2845

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?

Sep 24, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.76%chance

503766

OptionVotes

YES

1152

660

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

Which Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) provisions will survive until 2029?

Jul 3, 9:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5852

OptionProbability

Dependents can stay on parents' insurance until age 26

Guaranteed issue (protection from discrimination by insurers for preexisting conditions)

Per-state insurance exchanges

Nutrition labelling requirements

Prescription drugs as essential services (must be covered by insurance)

No deductibles/co-pay for vaccinations

Medicaid expansion

Bundled payments for Medicare

Coverage for contraceptive methods

Premium subsidies for households between 100-400% of federal poverty level using insurance exchanges

Employer mandate for businesses with >50 employees

States may require abortion care coverage

Will Trump eliminate any social programs in his second term?

Jul 9, 2:24 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

30.65%chance

6378

OptionVotes

YES

150

Will surrogacy be partially or fully tax deductible in the US for federal taxes by EoY 2029

Jan 4, 4:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48%chance

3238

OptionVotes

YES

1041

961

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.32%chance

4154

OptionVotes

YES

218

Will the Affordable Care Act get repealed before January 20th, 2029?

Nov 11, 10:30 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM

35.96%chance

1047

OptionVotes

YES

133

Will Massachusetts Bill SD.2808 pass in the 194th General Court?

Apr 15, 3:27 PMJan 5, 11:59 PM

44.84%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

111

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Do you care enough about CLIMATE CHANGE to change your actions? (personal poll)

Jan 21, 4:19 PM

900

CARES Act News

Prediction markets for CARES Act

Prediction markets for CARES Act

Prediction markets for CARES Act

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Which Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) provisions will survive until 2029?

Will Trump eliminate any social programs in his second term?

Will surrogacy be partially or fully tax deductible in the US for federal taxes by EoY 2029

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Will the Affordable Care Act get repealed before January 20th, 2029?

Will Massachusetts Bill SD.2808 pass in the 194th General Court?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

Do you care enough about CLIMATE CHANGE to change your actions? (personal poll)

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