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Prediction markets for Carrier

Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?

May 19, 5:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.7%chance

1237627

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3003

2619

The USA loses an aircraft carrier through mid 2026

Jan 2, 8:10 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

1%chance

232399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will Nauru acquire an aircraft carrier before 2031?

Feb 18, 11:53 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

1%chance

61416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

36

[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?

Nov 14, 2:24 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM

21.91%chance

141333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

152

The USA loses an aircraft carrier anytime til EOY 2028

Jul 13, 5:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.75%chance

12857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1420

915

Will the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning sink before 2033

Jan 1, 11:35 PMDec 31, 1:00 PM

17.16%chance

21555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

938

Will China launch nine aircraft carriers by the end of 2035?

Dec 24, 7:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

10333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Will the next French aircraft carrier be (initially) named after a woman?

Apr 9, 12:54 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

18.19%chance

5258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

336

79

Will China's next (fourth) aircraft carrier be nuclear-powered?

Mar 13, 1:20 PMMar 20, 3:59 PM

78.73%chance

7175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

355

126

Will hypersonic missile(s) sink a US aircraft carrier by 2030?

May 19, 4:38 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

12.19%chance

8130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

121

Will any aircraft carrier be lost at sea before 2036?

May 23, 9:19 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

41.71%chance

665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

97

83

Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030?

Jan 1, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

64.57%chance

461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

74

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