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Prediction markets for Carrier

Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?

May 19, 5:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.34%chance

1257897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2959

2889

Will Nauru acquire an aircraft carrier before 2031?

Feb 18, 11:53 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

1%chance

61416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

36

[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?

Nov 14, 2:24 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM

18.09%chance

151368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

143

The USA loses an aircraft carrier anytime til EOY 2028

Jul 13, 5:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.29%chance

13930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1474

908

China has nuclear-powered carrier in service by end 2040?

Sep 19, 5:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.11%chance

9690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1280

781

Who will France’s next aircraft carrier be named after?

Apr 9, 4:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10673

OptionProbability

France Libre

Other

François Mitterand

Simone Veil

Richelieu

Darlan

Jeanne d'Arc

Leclerc

93

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning sink before 2033

Jan 1, 11:35 PMDec 31, 1:00 PM

17.16%chance

21555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

938

Will China launch nine aircraft carriers by the end of 2035?

Dec 24, 7:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

11383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

48

[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

Nov 14, 2:28 PMJan 3, 4:00 AM

41.39%chance

10159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

106

Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030?

Jan 1, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

64.57%chance

461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

74

Will the USA's CVN-81 "Doris Miller" Aircraft Carrier be launched and commissioned by the end of 2032 as planned?

Nov 27, 7:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.93%chance

533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

105

Will the US Navy commission more than five Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?

Sep 30, 1:20 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

47.39%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

70

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