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Prediction markets for Carry

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.5%chance

2365863

OptionVotes

YES

NO

55552

2477

Will Aella carry a pregnancy to term before she turns 45?

Dec 17, 5:10 PMFeb 23, 7:59 AM

55.39%chance

9620273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1450

885

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

406214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3162

2308

A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027

Apr 6, 12:42 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

7.79%chance

295505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3441

291

Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?

Jan 4, 2:01 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.99%chance

294426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

895

Will Trump sign a concealed-carry reciprocity bill?

Nov 10, 7:37 AMJan 22, 5:59 AM

59.04%chance

112475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Will the first Starship to land on Mars carry useful payload?

Sep 8, 2:40 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

78.3%chance

152046

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1899

526

Will malaria-carrying mosquitos be wiped out before the year 2030?

Jul 14, 6:30 PMDec 31, 10:17 PM

6.85%chance

372036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

888

[Metaculus] Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

May 18, 4:42 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM

44.23%chance

71047

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

891

Will Tesla's Cybercab be carrying public riders in at least 3 US metro areas by December 31, 2026?

Aug 25, 1:47 AMJan 12, 11:59 PM

96.03%chance

14678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

292

4

Will India's Gaganyaan spacecraft carry an astronaut to orbit before 2030?

Feb 26, 5:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

79.31%chance

12596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1369

832

Robo-Palanquin - human-carrying robot available by mid 2034

May 21, 8:44 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

47.95%chance

5350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

960

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