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Prediction markets for Carry Trade

How many Iranians will be killed by it's regime in 2026?

Jan 11, 12:53 PMJan 12, 2:59 AM

446583

OptionProbability

40000+

20000-39999

10000-19999

6000-9999

3000 - 5999

2000- 2999

0 - 1999

53

25

10

6

4

1

0

When will there be x simultaneously operational Starships?

Jun 19, 3:06 PMAug 31, 2:30 PM

134663

OptionProbability

05 by end of 2027/06

10 by end of 2027/09

10 by end of 2027/06

20 by end of 2027/12

10 by end of 2027/03

30 by end of 2027/12

05 by end of 2026/12

05 by end of 2027/03

05 by end of 2026/10

10 by end of 2026/12

05 by end of 2026/08 i.e. Aug 2026

20 by end of 2026/12

17

13

10

10

8

7

6

6

5

3

2

2

If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?

Jun 5, 4:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

24%chance

431593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average cross 50,000 by March 31, 2026, the end of the fiscal quarter.

Jan 7, 2:02 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

73.95%chance

6697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1685

593

US Congress members fight with deadly weapons in Congress before 2035.

Jan 8, 6:33 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

9.88%chance

7388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

121

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Feb 2, 11:37 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

29.48%chance

5248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

65

Jamie Dimon to mention prediction markets in 2026?

Jan 17, 9:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.09%chance

8132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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