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Prediction markets for Cars

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

25.29%chance

155163135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1655

638

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Sep 1, 11:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

45.46%chance

452132699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3455

2670

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.87%chance

322116454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1186

815

Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?

Sep 9, 12:44 PMSep 16, 10:59 PM

7757085

OptionProbability

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

None (does not happen by market close)

80

16

4

0

0

0

0

Will Tesla become the top-selling car manufacturer in 2027?

Aug 19, 11:35 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

7.31%chance

13543125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5141

1325

Donut Battery powered car delivered by EOY 2030?

Jan 6, 2:16 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

10.12%chance

3542536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29827

3357

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.43%chance

12322815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3710

1445

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Aug 25, 12:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.15%chance

6212367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

903

Will any mass-produced electric car or truck have a range of at least 1000 miles by the end of 2029?

Dec 12, 4:26 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

17.67%chance

7010838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2326

500

Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?

Nov 2, 7:43 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM

23.51%chance

828854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1445

803

Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?

Nov 2, 10:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

88.47%chance

536467

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2371

141

Will we be able to buy a €25k autonomous car that doesn't require driving license in mid 2029 in Italy?

Jun 2, 12:42 PMJun 2, 9:59 PM

9.8%chance

363641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3033

330

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