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Prediction markets for Cars

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

44%chance

145153175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

945

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Sep 1, 11:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.22%chance

441121733

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3797

2487

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.51%chance

317104503

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1173

837

Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?

Sep 9, 12:44 PMSep 16, 10:59 PM

7756615

OptionProbability

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

None (does not happen by market close)

73

23

3

0

0

0

0

Will Tesla become the top-selling car manufacturer in 2027?

Aug 19, 11:35 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.37%chance

13342139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4181

1412

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83%chance

11419905

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4405

1278

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Aug 25, 12:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.78%chance

6112317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

927

Will any mass-produced electric car or truck have a range of at least 1000 miles by the end of 2029?

Dec 12, 4:26 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.9%chance

7010719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2233

521

Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?

Nov 2, 7:43 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM

23.19%chance

818849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1462

798

Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?

Nov 2, 10:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

89.54%chance

525984

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2453

130

Will we be able to buy a €25k autonomous car that doesn't require driving license in mid 2029 in Italy?

Jun 2, 12:42 PMJun 2, 9:59 PM

12%chance

353316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

Will 0.1% of the US population have traveled in a flying car by 2050?

Apr 16, 3:00 AMJan 1, 1:15 PM

47.56%chance

161523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

894

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