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Prediction markets for CARV

When will the US tariffs on China first drop to ≤50% again for a month?

Apr 28, 7:11 AMFeb 1, 7:51 AM

1916385

OptionProbability

December 2025, or before

November 2025, or before

October 2025, or before

September 2025, or before

August 2025, or before

July 2025, or before

April 2025

May 2025, or before

June 2025, or before

74

71

66

59

50

5

0

0

0

Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?

May 9, 11:30 PMMay 10, 6:59 AM

7%chance

817779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1479

946

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Apr 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.74%chance

231422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1393

789

How many manifest babies born before 2028

Jun 10, 1:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13928

OptionProbability

2

1

0

3

4+

44

24

21

7

4

Will Trump's face begin to be carved into Mount Rushmore before 2030?

Feb 4, 11:36 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4.45%chance

10862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

463

22

Who am I thinking of? [Round 6; TIME SENSITIVE prize!]

Jul 31, 3:38 PMAug 7, 3:33 PM

2696

OptionProbability

Other

The guy who carved Pharoah Iry Hor's name on the large vessel in his tomb

Noel Gugliemi

Luke Treadaway

98

1

1

0

Will all living democratic presidents attend Donald Trump's state funeral?

Apr 8, 5:16 PMApr 9, 2:59 AM

64.1%chance

7113

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

88

What will be the final net IRR for Apollo Investment Fund X? (X100)

Dec 7, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.85%chance

2105

OptionProbability

NO

YES

375

196

By 2040, will we believe that the head of the Great Sphinx was substantially recarved after its initial construction?

Aug 9, 7:12 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

60%chance

392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

98

83

Will TAG Grading overtake PSA as the biggest collectible authenticator before the end of 2025?

Feb 27, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.59%chance

262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

UK abolishes birthright citizenship for children of non-settled parents before EOY2030?

Jul 22, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.79%chance

354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will another Federal Carbon tax carve-out be created before the end of 2025?

Nov 10, 6:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.73%chance

330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

72

68

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