CARV News

Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

Jun 15, 2:03 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM

6.58%chance

3811521

OptionVotes

YES

3767

265

Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?

May 9, 11:30 PMMay 10, 6:59 AM

3.7%chance

8710123

OptionVotes

YES

2702

882

How interesting are my different ideas for LessWrong posts, and when will I post them?

Jun 18, 2:24 PMDec 31, 2:03 PM

148605

OptionProbability

4c) Generalisation splitting, posted EoY 2026

8a) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, >50 upvotes

8c) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, posted EoY 2026

3b) A taxonomy of selection hacking, >3 comments

5b) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, >3 comments

6b) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, >3 comments

1c) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, posted EoY 2026

2b) Prediction markets for good, >3 comments

3a) A taxonomy of selection hacking, >50 upvotes

1b) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, >3 comments

2c) Prediction markets for good, posted EoY 2026

7b) DCI Concrete projects, >3 comments

5a) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, >50 upvotes

2a) Prediction markets for good, >50 upvotes

7a) DCI Concrete projects, >50 upvotes

4b) Generalisation splitting, >3 comments

1a) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, >50 upvotes

6a) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, >50 upvotes

5c) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, posted EoY 2026

3c) A taxonomy of selection hacking, posted EoY 2026

7c) DCI Concrete projects, posted EoY 2026

6c) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, posted EoY 2026

4a) Generalisation splitting, >50 upvotes

8b) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, >3 comments

100

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Nov 23, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.5%chance

62087

OptionVotes

YES

3087

324

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Apr 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.2%chance

271752

OptionVotes

YES

1411

781

Will Trump's face begin to be carved into Mount Rushmore before 2030?

Feb 4, 11:36 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

1%chance

131494

OptionVotes

YES

995

How many manifest babies born before 2028

Jun 10, 1:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

151272

OptionProbability

Will the FTC, SEC, or EPA carve out a special exemption for a specific company?

Sep 13, 7:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.14%chance

7410

OptionVotes

YES

1125

889

When will the UK join the European Single Market or the European Union Customs Union?

Apr 16, 5:51 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

8273

OptionProbability

2036-2037

2026-2027

2027-2028

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2024-2025

2025-2026

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2049-2050

2050-2051

2051-2052

Prediction markets legalized in India by 2035?

Dec 22, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.99%chance

7157

OptionVotes

YES

153

Will Manifold market exist in 2050?

Sep 11, 6:23 PMDec 31, 7:30 AM

85.42%chance

5144

OptionVotes

YES

242

Will all living democratic presidents attend Donald Trump's state funeral?

Apr 8, 5:16 PMApr 9, 2:59 AM

64.1%chance

7113

OptionVotes

YES

141

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Prediction markets for CARV

Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?

How interesting are my different ideas for LessWrong posts, and when will I post them?

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Will Trump's face begin to be carved into Mount Rushmore before 2030?

How many manifest babies born before 2028

Will the FTC, SEC, or EPA carve out a special exemption for a specific company?

When will the UK join the European Single Market or the European Union Customs Union?

Prediction markets legalized in India by 2035?

Will Manifold market exist in 2050?

Will all living democratic presidents attend Donald Trump's state funeral?

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