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Prediction markets for CARV

Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?

May 9, 11:30 PMMay 10, 6:59 AM

3.33%chance

839279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2979

872

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Apr 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.2%chance

271752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

781

Mail-in ballots eliminated by 2026 midterms?

Aug 19, 3:40 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

2%chance

61413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

14

How many manifest babies born before 2028

Jun 10, 1:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

151272

OptionProbability

1

0

2

3

4+

35

31

24

7

4

Will Trump's face begin to be carved into Mount Rushmore before 2030?

Feb 4, 11:36 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

6.6%chance

11867

OptionVotes

YES

NO

376

27

Will the US lift its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

Apr 16, 5:41 PMMay 31, 10:00 PM

30.27%chance

13707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

93

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Nov 23, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.35%chance

3515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

660

Will the Senate eliminate or suspend the filibuster by the end of 2026?

Nov 7, 3:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.82%chance

7343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

43

When will the UK join the European Single Market or the European Union Customs Union?

Apr 16, 5:51 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

8273

OptionProbability

2036-2037

2026-2027

2027-2028

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2024-2025

2025-2026

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2049-2050

2050-2051

2051-2052

12

9

9

9

9

9

9

7

7

7

7

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will all living democratic presidents attend Donald Trump's state funeral?

Apr 8, 5:16 PMApr 9, 2:59 AM

64.1%chance

7113

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

88

What will be the final net IRR for Apollo Investment Fund X? (X100)

Dec 7, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.85%chance

2105

OptionProbability

NO

YES

375

196

UK abolishes birthright citizenship for children of non-settled parents before EOY2030?

Jul 22, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

7104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

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