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Prediction markets for CARV

When will the US tariffs on China first drop to ≤50% again for a month?

Apr 28, 7:11 AMFeb 1, 7:51 AM

2423502

OptionProbability

December 2025, or before

November 2025, or before

April 2025

May 2025, or before

June 2025, or before

July 2025, or before

August 2025, or before

September 2025, or before

October 2025, or before

96

95

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?

May 9, 11:30 PMMay 10, 6:59 AM

7%chance

817779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1479

946

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Apr 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.63%chance

251697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1568

726

Mail-in ballots eliminated by 2026 midterms?

Aug 19, 3:40 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

2%chance

61413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

14

Will Trump's face begin to be carved into Mount Rushmore before 2030?

Feb 4, 11:36 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4.45%chance

10862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

463

22

Will the Senate eliminate or suspend the filibuster by the end of 2025?

Nov 7, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.95%chance

4610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

710

14

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Nov 23, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.35%chance

3515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

660

Will the Senate eliminate or suspend the filibuster by the end of 2026?

Nov 7, 3:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.91%chance

5254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

31

What will be the final net IRR for Apollo Investment Fund X? (X100)

Dec 7, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.85%chance

2105

OptionProbability

NO

YES

375

196

Will TAG Grading overtake PSA as the biggest collectible authenticator before the end of 2025?

Feb 27, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.97%chance

372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

UK abolishes birthright citizenship for children of non-settled parents before EOY2030?

Jul 22, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.61%chance

464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

Will another Federal Carbon tax carve-out be created before the end of 2025?

Nov 10, 6:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.73%chance

330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

72

68

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