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Prediction markets for Casca
"Massive anti-AI preference cascade based on xrisk" by end of 2025?
Jul 19, 10:35 PMDec 31, 10:24 PM
11.45%chance
13359135
OptionVotes
27814
3595
Will Kessler Syndrome (cascading collisions of orbital debris) be observed before 2030?
Aug 9, 6:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16.52%chance
131556
OptionVotes
2248
445
Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035?
Oct 21, 8:48 PMOct 29, 3:59 AM
20%chance
15637
OptionVotes
1003
798
Will the Cascadia subduction zone experience a Megathrust earthquake before 2050?
Sep 6, 6:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
51.02%chance
12311
OptionVotes
209
167
Will the Cascadia Subduction Zone experience a earthquake of magnitude at least 8.0 before 2073?
Jun 22, 5:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.65%chance
595
OptionVotes
120
69
OptionVotes
222
196
OptionProbability
59
14
14
14
Will Lada Nuzhna visit Cascadia (Washington/Oregon/British Columbia) by EOY2030?
Jul 30, 3:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50%chance
122
OptionVotes
100
100
Will windsurf OR cursor sync up cascade memories BETWEEN computers by EOY2026
Jan 26, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
47.56%chance
15
OptionVotes
105
95
OptionProbability
50
50