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Prediction markets for Catalyst

US civil war before 2028 with Charlie Kirk shooting as major cause?

Sep 11, 10:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.86%chance

229395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5823

172

When will the tesla share price first exceed $500?

Jan 2, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

207200

OptionProbability

It won't, not before 2027

November 2026

December 2026

September 2026

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

August 2026

October 2026

96

5

5

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will there be helium-3 production on the moon before 2063 ?

May 6, 3:01 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

14.88%chance

212624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

977

890

Will Bitcoin exceed $100,000 before December 31, 2026?

Feb 19, 7:54 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

15.77%chance

282069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

43

Who will resign first?

Jan 12, 3:07 AMDec 31, 3:03 AM

141306

OptionProbability

Keir Starmer

Kemi Badenoch

99

1

Will generative artificial intelligence be banned in at least one G7 country by the end of 2026?

Jul 29, 2:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.94%chance

15732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

Will there be oxygen production on the moon before 2053 ?

May 6, 2:31 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

81.03%chance

19656

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

853

Will there be aluminum production on the moon before 2063 ?

May 6, 2:43 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

50.68%chance

17610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

857

Will there be steel production on the moon before 2063 ?

May 6, 2:34 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

44.68%chance

14468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

954

Will there be water production on the moon before 2053 ?

May 6, 2:33 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

67.94%chance

12218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

219

170

Will there be titanium production on the moon before 2063 ?

May 6, 2:59 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

40.11%chance

13192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

925

Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one?

Apr 8, 2:01 AMDec 31, 1:59 AM

43%chance

584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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