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Prediction markets for CATE

By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?

Apr 12, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.73%chance

27255532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

950

Which market category on MNX will generate the most volume in 2026?

Apr 9, 4:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2017276

OptionProbability

Equity or index perps

Valuation futures / Pre-IPO

Compute (eg H100 perps)

Non-AI prediction markets

Benchmarkets

42

32

10

9

7

Which job category will be most replaced by AI by end of 2026?

Feb 21, 9:24 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

71221

OptionProbability

Other

Customer Service Representatives

Software Engineers

Administrative Assistants

Truck Drivers

Researchers

38

34

10

8

5

5

Oscars 2027: Will an actor or actress receive 2+ nominations in the same category?

May 18, 5:28 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

17.65%chance

61176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2160

463

In 2030, will the majority of the top 10 blogs in Substack’s Politics category be written by humans?

Feb 3, 4:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.56%chance

12389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

938

When will Ethel Caterham pass away?

Oct 3, 6:28 PMJan 1, 6:27 PM

2329

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028 onwards

Before 2026

44

34

29

2

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?

Mar 18, 3:21 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

4212

OptionProbability

Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Manifold -0.28 (Better) Brier)

Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)

Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)

Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)

Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)

Economy (1 of 16 Resolved, Manifold -0.05 (Better) Brier)

Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)

Media (0 of 8 Resolved)

Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)

14

13

12

10

9

9

9

9

9

7

Will Iceland win another Nobel Prize in any category from this year to 2029?

Oct 9, 10:14 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

19.87%chance

6146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

50

Will the Legend of Zelda movie be nominated for an Oscar in any category?

Nov 18, 7:45 AMNov 25, 7:59 AM

27.94%chance

894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

75

What will be the highest hurricane category to hit Rockport, Texas before the end of 2030?

Oct 6, 3:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

291

OptionProbability

Category 2

Category 3

Category 4

Category 5

Category 1

No Hurricane will hit Rockport

21

21

21

21

9

6

Will a Korean win a Nobel Prize in one of the science categories in 2025 or 2026?

Nov 26, 5:01 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

24.62%chance

375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Will a Korean win a Nobel prize in one of the science categories in 2025, 2026, or 2027?

Dec 23, 8:05 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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