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Prediction markets for Cavs

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.25%chance

11456464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9350

3477

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.23%chance

4751212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2018

481

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Sep 27, 2:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

21.2%chance

10421308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2209

1947

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Oct 8, 9:05 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

7%chance

3411568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11171

7571

Will the Lumina oral probiotic treatment reduce the rate of cavities by at least 50% in the 4 years after application?

Apr 10, 6:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54%chance

868873

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

1387

Where will LeBron be traded?

Jul 3, 2:32 PMFeb 6, 3:07 PM

173039

OptionProbability

Not traded before deadline

Knicks

Other

Cavs

76ers

Mavericks

Bucks

Warriors

Clippers

89

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Does Lantern Bioworks' product to prevent cavities also eliminate "morning breath"?

Apr 10, 8:58 PMDec 31, 5:01 AM

31.34%chance

382225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1284

777

Will I get a cure to cavities before 2030?

Sep 24, 7:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.12%chance

171433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

867

Will the scientific consensus in 2030 be that Lantern Bioworks' Lumina Probiotic is effective at reducing cavities?

Apr 10, 2:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

48.36%chance

341386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

885

Can anti-cavity oral probiotics spread directly between people via mouth-to-mouth contact?

Nov 20, 2:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.85%chance

24684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1981

1970

Conditional on a Mistborn movie, will Henry Cavill have a role in it?

Dec 16, 7:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16%chance

11488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

918

Will Substack cave to censorship demands before 2030?

Dec 22, 9:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.79%chance

12392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

737

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