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Prediction markets for Cavs

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.85%chance

11757169

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8736

3785

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.04%chance

4852336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3129

336

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Sep 27, 2:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

22.74%chance

10821542

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2248

1811

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Oct 8, 9:05 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

5.45%chance

3619769

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11027

9758

Will the Lumina oral probiotic treatment reduce the rate of cavities by at least 50% in the 4 years after application?

Apr 10, 6:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.21%chance

879123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1637

1199

Will the scientific consensus in 2030 be that Lantern Bioworks' Lumina Probiotic is effective at reducing cavities?

Apr 10, 2:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

28.91%chance

363686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1615

565

Does Lantern Bioworks' product to prevent cavities also eliminate "morning breath"?

Apr 10, 8:58 PMDec 31, 5:01 AM

31.4%chance

382226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

778

Will I get a cure to cavities before 2030?

Sep 24, 7:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.12%chance

171433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

867

Colorado cavers confirm reopening "Cyclopean Cave" near Leadville by end-2026?

Nov 28, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.4%chance

5904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1240

806

Will Substack cave to censorship demands before 2030?

Dec 22, 9:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.79%chance

12392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

737

Will anyone successfully incorporate a light sail into the optical cavity of a laser before 2035?

Oct 10, 8:53 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.69%chance

482

OptionVotes

NO

YES

92

87

Grasberg block cave restarts by mid-2026?

Nov 19, 3:22 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

47.59%chance

273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1049

953

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