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Prediction markets for Cavs

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.13%chance

11958822

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7987

4234

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.34%chance

4853458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2009

482

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Sep 27, 2:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.07%chance

11325364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4814

1782

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Oct 8, 9:05 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

5.89%chance

3620707

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11072

9020

Will the scientific consensus in 2030 be that Lantern Bioworks' Lumina Probiotic is effective at reducing cavities?

Apr 10, 2:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

27.58%chance

373736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1665

546

Does Lantern Bioworks' product to prevent cavities also eliminate "morning breath"?

Apr 10, 8:58 PMDec 31, 5:01 AM

31.4%chance

382226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

778

Colorado cavers confirm reopening "Cyclopean Cave" near Leadville by end-2026?

Nov 28, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.79%chance

72164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2500

400

Cavendish Stock

May 10, 11:14 PMMay 11, 10:59 PM

121579

OptionProbability

NO

YES

345

176

Will I get a cure to cavities before 2030?

Sep 24, 7:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.12%chance

171433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

867

Will Substack cave to censorship demands before 2030?

Dec 22, 9:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48%chance

13407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

723

Covid-19 origin coronavirus caves are physically closed or destroyed by mid 2028

Dec 6, 7:42 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

16.72%chance

7248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

274

72

Will anyone successfully incorporate a light sail into the optical cavity of a laser before 2035?

Oct 10, 8:53 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.69%chance

482

OptionVotes

NO

YES

92

87

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