Cazé TV News

For at least one day, the model was generally available to anyone in the United States willing to pay enough without waiting lists or "beta" programs

It is discussed during a segment of "HatGPT"

By default, the generated videos will be watermarked

A competing model has challenged Sora's dominance in the text-to-video space

A poll of Manifold users will say that 20% or less have made a Sora video in the last month

OpenAI will be sued over the model

It was trained on data created in a physics/game engine (eg Unreal Engine)

A post claiming Sora video is real will go viral with > 1 million engagements

It will be noticeably worse at or largely unable to generate fast-paced animation

A second major version of the model has been released

A video produced by the model has been used for widely spread misinformation, as reported by a major news outlet

It has been referenced in a legal case about deepfakes

costs for an average 1 minute HD (or higher quality) video will be lower than $0.50

A major studio will use this in a movie or tv show

It can be used during conversations with ChatGPT on the OpenAI website

It prompts the Hard Fork Podcast to rant about AI model names

Video will include sound

A youtube video made only with Sora will get > 100M views

It will be jailbroken to make a porn video

It will be pay-per-use (or credit based) as opposed to as part of a monthly subscription

it'll be legaly banned in at least one EU country

A youtube movie >2h will be made with only Sora and splicing videos together will get > 10M views

At least 2 Manifold questions will contain a Sora-generated video in their header

Sora will be part of GPT model

It will be the most popular text to video tool (determined by google search trends)

Public access was revoked after release, even if it is later restored

There will be a new monthly subscription that includes sora and dalle for creatives

It has been integrated as a feature on a major social media platform

It can generate videos over 10 minutes long

It will be the SOTA for text to video

It has a logo separate from the OpenAI logo

It has been renamed

It will be free to use

A poll of Manifold users will say that 30% or more have created a Sora video in the last month

The model has had a non-trivial effect on the everday life of the average American, as judged by @Bayesian

It can create a fully coherent short film from a prompt (20-40 minutes)

The Sora line of models proves to be useful for purposes where the video is secondary, such as research into physics, medicine, and weather

A third major version of the model has been released

OpenAI will release the number of model parameters

Full description of model architecture will be public

Eliezer Yudkowsky states or implies that future versions of the Sora line of models - specifically, by name - are an existential threat to civilization

The Sora line of models are being used as simulators for legal investigations - including but not limited to predicting events leading to accidents and crimes

A version of the model was the cause of the YES resolution of the "Weak AGI" Metaculus market

OpenAI will lose a lawsuit over the model

Eliezer Yudkowsky has stated or implied that the current version or an obsolete version of the model poses or had posed an existential threat to civilization

A nyt bestselling author will release their own bestseller movie/tv adaptation using sora

It's just hysteria/mistaken sightings

Two or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes

Many of them are hobbyist drones looking for/chasing the "original" drones

The drones will have mostly vanished by inauguration

They record images/video using digital cameras

More drones are flying at night after a Sept 2023 change in FAA regulations, leading to an increase in sightings

Their true nature will remain a mystery

Four or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes

Belong to a hobbyist

Local officials lack equipment sensitive enough to gauge size and relative threat

At least 1 drone is shot down and recovered

Uses cellular networks to send and receive data

Belong to an activist

Major Mexican TV network runs story implying drones are alien tech

Linked to illegal drug activity

Some drones use advanced technology not available to the public

An adversary is trying to force the US's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech

Redditor on r/UFOs (post with >= 10k upvotes) claims abduction by drones

Belong to a start-up

Someone will attempt to shoot down a drone and end up injuring themselves or others

they're designed to look like a commercial jet

Does not use cellular networks to send and receive data

Belong to a large company

Belong to the US military/gov

Operated by (foreign) intelligence agency / military of a US adversary

Are investigating Plasmoids

They’re looking for ionizing radiation

Hoax put on specifically by Anthpo

Are investigating Gamma Radiation

Operated by (foreign) intelligence agency / military of a country allied to the US

Linked to Russia (government/military)

It's a publicity stunt for a company

Belong to a foreign government/agency

Aliens

Linked to Blockchain technology

AI superintelligence

Terrorism

It's a new delivery service

Linked to North Korea

Linked to China (government/military)

100% of all footage of the drones was AI generated

Ron Weasley is a redhead

Harry Potter is white

At least one named character from the book has their race changed

Snape is black

Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British

A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)

McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)

Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"

Premieres in 2027

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode

Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him

Malfoy has white blonde hair

Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)

JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer

Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen

Fred and George are twins irl

Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"

The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured

Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes

There’s a scene set before Harry is born

Peeves is a reoccurring character

Arthur Weasley is shown on screen

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2

An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show

Hermione is white

mandrake root on screen

A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry

80% or higher on rotten tomatoes

Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen

A house elf is shown on screen

Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name

Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot

It ends on a cliff hanger

The Quibbler is shown or mentioned

It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year

At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped

Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode

Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures

Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits

An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen

It's woke

The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.

The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3

Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s

Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings

90% or higher on rotten tomatoes

The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode

At least one of the actors is transgender

VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE

Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting

Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)

We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts

Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1

We get AGI before it premieres

Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1

Premieres in 2026

Features an explicitly transgender character

Fred and George have the same actor

JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance

Hermione is black

Smartphone shown within Hogwarts

Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity

Hermione is Indian

Yudkowsky makes an appearance

HPMOR is referenced

One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.

Taylor Swift goes to Space

Puerto Rico becomes a (US) State

Taylor Swift dates somebody who does not identify as a man

Taylor Swift dies

Nate Silver wins a WSOP Bracelet

Nine months prior to the birth of Taylor Swift’s first child

China full-scale invades Taiwan

The Winds of Winter (Game of Thrones 6th Novel) is Published

Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II gets remarried

GameStop files for Bankruptcy

Cannabis is Federally Legalized

Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II appears on "The Joe Rogan Experience"

Destiny is unbanned from Twitch

The Buffalo Bills beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs

The Carolina Panthers clinch a playoff berth

A Non-QB wins the NFL MVP award

A woman is president of the United States

A United States presidential candidate endorsed by Taylor Swift gets elected

Taylor Swift performs at the Super Bowl

Taylor Swift does not have a live performance for a period of at least 2 years

Travis Kelce Retires From the NFL

Travis Kelce wins a fourth Super Bowl

Any United States current or former president dies (after Jimmy Carter)

The United States reports a Recession

Songs on The Tortured Poets Department reach 10 Billion total streams

Songs on Midnights reach 20 Billion total streams

The UN has a new member state

Obergefell is effectively overturned by the Supreme Court

King Charles III ceases to be the King of the UK (or England, if the UK is broken up)

A Supreme Court justice dies or announces retirement

Taylor Swift releases 2 new (non-rerecord) albums

Taylor Swift gets engaged

Taylor Swift releases her "Taylor Swift" album rerecord

Reputation (TV) is released

A major Philadelphia sports team (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB) wins a championship

Jimmy Carter Dies

The Same Party Controls the U.S. House, Senate and Presidency

Taylor Swift attends a Super Bowl won by the Kansas City Chiefs

Joe Biden campaigns actively for Democratic candidates in the 2026 midterms

Joe Biden hosts a political podcast or TV show

Joe Biden holds any formal position in the Democratic Party or a state Democratic Party

Joe Biden becomes a regular political commentator on a major network

Joe Biden launches a new political action committee

Joe Biden runs for POTUS in 2028 (formally files FEC Form 2)

Joe Biden becomes POTUS

TV

Refrigerator

Oven/stove

Microwave

Washing machine and/or dryer

A millionaire

A popular social media influencer (1M+ followers)

A reality TV star

A prominent AI researcher/developer

A well-known author

A famous couple

Elon Musk

A prominent tech CEO/founder

AGI with another AI

A mainstream musician/singer

A billionaire

A Hollywood celebrity (A-list)

The creator of the market.

A member of Congress/Parliament

A professional athlete

perceived in mainstream news as more right-wing / centrist than Biden

Male

never ran for president before

White

has at least one brother

Pro-Israel

Governor at some point

From a swing state

already ran in a primary for Democrat before

Has a law degree

60 or older

6'0 or taller

Individual Net Worth < $1 million

House member at some point

Business leader

has at least two children at time.of election

Senator at some point

Actor , internet, or tv star

East asian

aoc as vp

bald

Indian

walz as vp

kamala as vp

related to trump

FloBikes

Max

Peacock

Other

ESPN

Not Available

Discovery+

YouTube

Apple TV+

Amazon Prime

Juror names are not public record

The defense calls fewer witnesses than the prosecution

Jury sequestered for entire trial

Luigi Mangione changes counsel during trial

Court TV offers "Gavel-to-Gavel coverage"

Law & Crime offers "Gavel-to-Gavel coverage"

Alternate juror is seated as a member of the Jury

Trial doesn't start until 2026

The case will be heard as a bench trial

Brady evidence is withheld

AUSA sanctioned

Defense counsel sanctioned

A motion for recusal is made

Trial is televised

Defendant held in contempt

Alliance (Cameramen, Speakermen, TV Men)

Astro Toilets

Other

Skibidi Toilets

None

CodeandSolder likes the TV show Breaking Bad

You like coders more than you like soldiers

You plan to resolve this answer to "NO"

You consider yourself to be to the political left of the average Democrat

<placeholder, do not resolve>