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Top stories

U.S. National Debt Tops $37 Trillion as Big Beautiful Bill Triggers $491 Billion Medicare Cuts and Record $1.2 Trillion Interest Expense

U.S. National Debt Tops $37 Trillion as Big Beautiful Bill Triggers $491 Billion Medicare Cuts and Record $1.2 Trillion Interest Expense

Authors

23

1 year ago

CBO: Trump’s Tax Law Causes $1,200 Loss for Poorest, $13,600 Gain for Richest, Adds $4T Debt, Risks $500B Medicare Cuts

CBO: Trump’s Tax Law Causes $1,200 Loss for Poorest, $13,600 Gain for Richest, Adds $4T Debt, Risks $500B Medicare Cuts

Authors

35

1 year ago

CBO Sees Trump Tariffs Cutting US Deficit by $4 Trillion

CBO Sees Trump Tariffs Cutting US Deficit by $4 Trillion

Authors

36

1 year ago

Prediction markets for CBO

Will Trump substantially replace income taxes with tariffs?

Jun 14, 2:54 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

1.37%chance

2013318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8688

120

What will the US national debt be after the Trump administration?

Mar 5, 8:50 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

101231

OptionProbability

40 - 49.9

50 - 59.9

30 - 39.9

Above 60

Below 20

20 - 29.9

78

14

4

2

1

1

What will the federal budget deficit be at the end of the Trump administration?

Mar 5, 9:30 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

101027

OptionProbability

$1000bn - $1999bn

$2000bn - $2999bn

$3000bn+

$0 - $999bn

Below $0

31

30

30

7

1

Will Trump increase or reduce legal immigration?

Jun 23, 8:52 AMJan 20, 7:18 AM

17487

OptionProbability

Neither

Decrease

Increase

92

7

1

Will the 200D moving average of the CBOE VIX Index hit 14 at any point of this decade?

Mar 7, 1:25 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

36%chance

6336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

756

410

Did Real Median Income Decrease During the Biden Administration?

Apr 17, 11:37 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

57.27%chance

6271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1158

864

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2024?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

43.22%chance

2157

OptionProbability

NO

YES

105

92

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2025?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

47.03%chance

2116

OptionProbability

NO

YES

112

84

When will the US enact a universal basic income of at least $500/month per adult?

Sep 30, 12:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

335

OptionProbability

Not by the end of 2050

2041–2050

2037–2040

2033–2036

2026–2028

2029–2032

75

14

5

3

1

1

By the end of 2036, will US federal law guarantee $6,000/year in cash to a non-disabled adult with no income?

Sep 30, 12:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.36%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

99

By the end of 2036, will the US enact a universal cash payment to all adults of at least... (per year, 2026 dollars)

Sep 30, 12:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

$1,000/year

$3,000/year

$6,000/year

$12,000/year

9

7

5

2

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2027?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

40%chance

00

OptionProbability

NO

YES

100

100

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