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Prediction markets for CBR

[Carlini questions] AI system exists that has significant CBRN risk

Mar 24, 2:21 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4148

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

87

85

83

75

57

Will "OpenAI's CBRN tests seem unclear" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Nov 23, 12:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

93

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