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Prediction markets for CCP

Was a CCP spy present at The Curve or afterparty

Nov 27, 5:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.41%chance

2725114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5322

188

A major hollywood movie about Covid comes out portraying the CCP negatively before 2035

May 2, 5:59 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.1%chance

432049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

928

Will Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?

Nov 30, 12:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

74.33%chance

181556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

956

The CCP itself will directly produce and raise children

Aug 20, 8:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.22%chance

251542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1326

872

CCP loses control of a province or SAR before 2030

Oct 15, 12:03 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

10.33%chance

10601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

925

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

Conditional on CCP losing power, will China's GDP-PPP per capita catch up with EU by 2050?

May 9, 5:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48%chance

10221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

179

Will any member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the CCP be removed from their position before Autumn 2027?

Nov 2, 12:26 PMNov 1, 3:59 PM

46.12%chance

5119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

73

Wikipedia unblocked in China by 2031 given continued CCP rule

Mar 21, 8:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

13.9%chance

698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

117

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

570

OptionProbability

Jeffrey Sachs

Huey Li (and the news)

SerpentZA

Laowhy86

Nicholas Kristof

Michael Pettis

Peter Hessler

James Fallows

Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

Liziqi

Nathan Rich

Living in China

Jerry Kowal

Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

Asia Society Policy Institute

Yale Center Beijing

Brookings Institution (China Center)

Blondie in China

Elon Musk

Bill Bishop, Sinocism

52

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

41

40

Any current member of the CCP's Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) dies in a plane crash

Aug 23, 5:48 PMAug 13, 6:59 AM

23%chance

466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

58

Will "Why Should I Assume CCP AGI is Worse Than USG..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 8:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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