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Prediction markets for CCP

Was a CCP spy present at The Curve or afterparty

Nov 27, 5:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.41%chance

2725114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5322

188

A major hollywood movie about Covid comes out portraying the CCP negatively before 2035

May 2, 5:59 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.1%chance

432049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

928

Will Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?

Nov 30, 12:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

74.33%chance

181556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

956

The CCP itself will directly produce and raise children

Aug 20, 8:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.22%chance

251542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1326

872

Will China still be controlled by the CCP in 2050?

May 9, 6:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42%chance

171253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

89

CCP loses control of a province or SAR before 2030

Oct 15, 12:03 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

10.33%chance

10601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

925

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

CCP AGI‑Pilled by 2027?

Dec 11, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.74%chance

11445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Before 2028, will Liang Wenfeng (of DeepSeek) be disappeared by the CCP for more than a month?

Feb 7, 1:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.18%chance

12321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

Will a 'civilian' Vice Chairman of Central Military Committee of the CCP be elected before Autumn 2032?

Nov 2, 1:14 PMNov 1, 3:59 PM

40.34%chance

442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

96

84

Will the CCP block the release of an LLM from a Chinese lab prior to 2028

Jun 27, 7:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.6%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

985

Will "Why Should I Assume CCP AGI is Worse Than USG..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 8:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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