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Prediction markets for CCP

Was a CCP spy present at The Curve or afterparty

Nov 27, 5:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.41%chance

2725114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5322

188

A major hollywood movie about Covid comes out portraying the CCP negatively before 2035

May 2, 5:59 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

64.03%chance

422034

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

913

Will there be a change in the members of the CCP Politburo Standing Committee by the end of 2025?

Oct 17, 2:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.77%chance

71826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

64

The CCP itself will directly produce and raise children

Aug 20, 8:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.4%chance

241533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

874

Will Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?

Nov 30, 12:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.79%chance

161306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

928

CCP loses control of a province or SAR before 2030

Oct 15, 12:03 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

10.33%chance

10601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

925

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

Before 2028, will Liang Wenfeng (of DeepSeek) be disappeared by the CCP for more than a month?

Feb 7, 1:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.18%chance

12321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

Conditional on CCP losing power, will China's GDP-PPP per capita catch up with EU by 2050?

May 9, 5:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.12%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

191

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

570

OptionProbability

Jeffrey Sachs

Huey Li (and the news)

SerpentZA

Laowhy86

Nicholas Kristof

Michael Pettis

Peter Hessler

James Fallows

Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

Liziqi

Nathan Rich

Living in China

Jerry Kowal

Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

Asia Society Policy Institute

Yale Center Beijing

Brookings Institution (China Center)

Blondie in China

Elon Musk

Bill Bishop, Sinocism

52

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

41

40

Will a 'civilian' Vice Chairman of Central Military Committee of the CCP be elected before Autumn 2032?

Nov 2, 1:14 PMNov 1, 3:59 PM

40.34%chance

442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

96

84

Will "Why Should I Assume CCP AGI is Worse Than USG..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 8:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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