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Prediction markets for CCP

Was a CCP spy present at The Curve or afterparty

Nov 27, 5:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.41%chance

2725114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5322

188

A major hollywood movie about Covid comes out portraying the CCP negatively before 2035

May 2, 5:59 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

64.03%chance

422034

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

913

The CCP itself will directly produce and raise children

Aug 20, 8:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.22%chance

251542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1326

872

Will Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?

Nov 30, 12:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.79%chance

161306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

928

CCP loses control of a province or SAR before 2030

Oct 15, 12:03 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

10.33%chance

10601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

925

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

CCP AGI‑Pilled by 2027?

Dec 11, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.82%chance

10409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Before 2028, will Liang Wenfeng (of DeepSeek) be disappeared by the CCP for more than a month?

Feb 7, 1:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.18%chance

12321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

Wikipedia unblocked in China by 2031 given continued CCP rule

Mar 21, 8:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

13.9%chance

698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

117

The CCP executes a leading executive from a real estate company before end of 2026

Sep 28, 6:18 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.1%chance

462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

77

Will the CCP add more members to the Central Military Commission before 2027?

Jan 27, 8:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.06%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Will "Why Should I Assume CCP AGI is Worse Than USG..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 8:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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