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Prediction markets for CCP

Was a CCP spy present at The Curve or afterparty

Nov 27, 5:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.34%chance

2625112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5380

186

A major hollywood movie about Covid comes out portraying the CCP negatively before 2035

May 2, 5:59 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

64.03%chance

411994

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

913

The CCP itself will directly produce and raise children

Aug 20, 8:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.31%chance

241325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1143

933

Will there be a change in the members of the CCP Politburo Standing Committee by the end of 2025?

Oct 17, 2:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.35%chance

41221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1209

127

Will Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?

Nov 30, 12:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.79%chance

151206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

928

CCP loses control of a province or SAR before 2030

Oct 15, 12:03 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

10.33%chance

10601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

925

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

570

OptionProbability

Jeffrey Sachs

Huey Li (and the news)

SerpentZA

Laowhy86

Nicholas Kristof

Michael Pettis

Peter Hessler

James Fallows

Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

Liziqi

Nathan Rich

Living in China

Jerry Kowal

Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

Asia Society Policy Institute

Yale Center Beijing

Brookings Institution (China Center)

Blondie in China

Elon Musk

Bill Bishop, Sinocism

52

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

41

40

Any current member of the CCP's Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) dies in a plane crash

Aug 23, 5:48 PMAug 13, 6:59 AM

23%chance

466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

58

Will the CCP appoint a Party Secretary of Taiwan before 2030?

Jul 18, 2:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.03%chance

355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will a 'civilian' Vice Chairman of Central Military Committee of the CCP be elected before Autumn 2032?

Nov 2, 1:14 PMNov 1, 3:59 PM

40.34%chance

442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

96

84

Will "Why Should I Assume CCP AGI is Worse Than USG..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 8:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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