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Top stories

White House Economists Warn Tariffs Threaten Near-Term U.S. Growth

White House Economists Warn Tariffs Threaten Near-Term U.S. Growth

Authors

5

3 months ago

Prediction markets for CEA

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1.15%chance

316855132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119785

2471

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM

43.72%chance

507233913

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8134

4706

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

Jan 22, 8:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.38%chance

183167202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

37000

1401

Will Trump win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize iff there is a ceasefire in Ukraine before 2026? (or not if there isn't)

Aug 16, 3:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

95.11%chance

291156992

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4411

227

Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of Tesla in 2025?

Jan 15, 11:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1.3%chance

11671135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9675

576

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

6.21%chance

906447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2009

1523

Will CEA publicly apologize for their response to the Nick Bostrom scandal by the end of 2025?

Apr 4, 6:22 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.49%chance

151221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

885

Will CEA announce insolvency before the end 2025?

Dec 4, 5:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.33%chance

171201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1689

916

CEA will run an EAG in 2030

Jul 29, 6:17 PMAug 5, 10:59 PM

74.31%chance

7965

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1701

588

Will Vox write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.13%chance

10742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

375

Will I think that CEA has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.77%chance

11410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

881

Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.16%chance

12264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

999

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