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Top stories

White House Economists Warn Tariffs Threaten Near-Term U.S. Growth

White House Economists Warn Tariffs Threaten Near-Term U.S. Growth

Authors

5

11 months ago

Prediction markets for CEA

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM

9.78%chance

602338438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18317

4420

When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?

Jun 8, 9:11 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

188137271

OptionProbability

Before 2028-07-01

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-07-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-07-01

71

55

40

16

0

0

0

0

Will the US Department of Education cease to exist during the Trump administration?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMFeb 21, 4:59 AM

7%chance

7821906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1964

37

[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.55%chance

6521031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5639

4686

[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.24%chance

3513953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9603

3111

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5.2%chance

928379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2389

1500

[ACX 2026] Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.08%chance

267586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5075

5068

[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.53%chance

163275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7541

4361

CEA will run an EAG in 2030

Jul 29, 6:17 PMAug 5, 10:59 PM

80.01%chance

81265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2001

500

Will Vox write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.13%chance

10742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

375

Will I think that CEA has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.23%chance

12672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

857

Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.72%chance

13664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

818

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