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Prediction markets for CEA
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM
31.33%chance
526245516
OptionVotes
6901
6797
OptionProbability
82
79
41
17
0
0
0
[ACX 2026] Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?
Jan 6, 10:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
57.01%chance
6317909
OptionVotes
7167
2205
Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM
5%chance
918354
OptionVotes
2482
1495
[ACX 2026] Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?
Jan 6, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14%chance
206151
OptionVotes
5173
4370
[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?
Jan 6, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
38.56%chance
171272
OptionVotes
6031
4424
[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?
Jan 6, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
36.48%chance
131203
OptionVotes
6073
4454
OptionVotes
1701
588
Will Vox write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?
Feb 13, 7:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
26.13%chance
10742
OptionVotes
1016
375
Will I think that CEA has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?
Feb 13, 7:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.77%chance
11410
OptionVotes
1185
881
Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?
Feb 13, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
37.16%chance
12264
OptionVotes
1003
999
[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
Jan 6, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.5%chance
8201
OptionVotes
5180
4868