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Prediction markets for CEN

Was Hamas using Al-Shifa as a shield for a command centre?

Oct 30, 5:06 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

86.06%chance

15038818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2827

800

will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?

Nov 7, 12:59 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

32.8%chance

2820756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6324

5475

Will Noam Chomsky become a centenarian?

Feb 29, 1:44 AMDec 9, 4:59 AM

13.64%chance

3113192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1955

1871

Will Javier Milei abolish the Argentinian central bank?

Nov 20, 12:30 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

11.61%chance

15212407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2447

62

Will the Kouprey (Bos sauveli) become extinct in the current century?

Jun 17, 4:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

98.99%chance

410143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9058

62

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88461

OptionProbability

>= 2046

2028-2029

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

2040-2041

2027

2042-2043

2044-2045

2026

13

10

10

9

9

9

9

8

7

7

6

4

Will humans on average live to 100 years old by the end of this century?

Nov 2, 4:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.27%chance

505492

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1070

851

Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?

Sep 26, 6:44 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

36.36%chance

382620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

1115

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

221693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1726

368

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

Sep 15, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.94%chance

61500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11500

8696

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.09%chance

14135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

1053

Will the population of Lahaina, Hawaii, exceed 10,000 in the 2030 census?

Aug 30, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.92%chance

7124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1194

1087

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