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Center for AI Safety News
Prediction markets for Center for AI Safety
Prediction markets for Center for AI Safety
7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.
Dec 28, 11:31 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
6.77%
chance
34
7169
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3717
270
Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus?
Sep 10, 5:42 AM
Sep 17, 8:59 PM
5.81%
chance
23
3589
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4027
248
Will the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?
Mar 27, 3:22 AM
Feb 1, 11:59 AM
6.81%
chance
9
2795
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3699
270
Will CAISI have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Jul 2, 11:55 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
35.21%
chance
10
2486
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1357
737
Will the Kennedy Center be demolished during Trump's presidency?
Sep 19, 11:46 AM
Jan 20, 12:00 PM
32%
chance
15
152
Option
Votes
YES
NO
146
69
Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?
Jun 21, 10:17 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
40.34%
chance
6
35
Option
Votes
YES
NO
122
82
Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?
Jun 18, 3:10 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
44.36%
chance
1
12
Option
Votes
YES
NO
112
89
Will global far-right alliances abolish and defunct generative AI and all AI technology before 2050?
Oct 31, 4:28 AM
Dec 31, 11:00 AM
8%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
100
100
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