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OptionProbability
Israel / Iran
Nigeria / Cameroon
Balochistan / Anyone
India / Pakistan
Central African Republic Civil War
Iraqi Conflict
Bangladesh / Anyone
Kurdistan / Anyone
United States / Iran
Azerbaijan / Armenia
100
100
72
28
24
15
14
13
10
9
OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Car chase scene
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Bond tells ≥1 joke
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
Bond drinks a martini
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Someone in the movie says the title
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The main theme song will be sung by a female
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
At least a portion filmed in Canada
A scene shows James Bond naked
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Death of a Bond love interest
Bond gets slapped
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Nazis (neo- counts)
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Bond wears a mask
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Canada is shown on screen
Sharks
Orgy
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A pinball machine will appear.
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Pirates
Assplay
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Bond has a neck tattoo
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Bond plays Russian roulette
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
98
98
97
95
94
93
92
91
90
90
90
90
87
86
85
85
84
84
83
83
82
82
81
80
77
76
75
72
70
70
69
69
69
68
68
67
66
65
65
62
62
60
58
57
57
56
56
55
55
55
54
54
54
54
53
53
53
52
51
51
50
50
49
49
49
49
49
48
48
48
47
46
46
45
45
45
45
45
45
43
43
43
43
43
42
41
41
40
39
39
39
38
38
38
37
37
37
36
36
35
35
35
34
34
34
33
33
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
26
26
25
25
25
24
23
23
23
23
22
22
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Other
Li Qiang (Premier, 2nd rank PSC member)
Ding Xuexiang (Vice Premier, 6th rank PSC member)
Chen Jining (Party Secretary of Shanghai)
Zhang Youxia (Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission)
Wang Yang (former Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference)
[Nobody] (Xi Jinping does not have a successor as General Secretary)
Cai Qi (5th rank PSC member, first-ranked of Secretariat)
Li Xi (7th rank PSC member, Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection)
Wang Yi (Foreign Minister)
Wang Huning (tourist, political theorist, and 4th rank PSC member)
Chen Min'er (Party Secretary of Tianjin)
Yuan Jiajun (Party Secretary of Chongqing)
Yin Li (Party Secretary of Beijing)
Li Shulei (Head of Party Publicity)
Zhao Leji (3rd rank PSC member, chairman of NPC Standing Committee)
Chen Wenqing (Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission)
29
15
12
12
10
10
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
James Comey – Former FBI Director
James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN
Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama
Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden
Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States
Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump
Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama
John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI
Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella
John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama
Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel
Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden
Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein
Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development
Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden
Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm
Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm
Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump
Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump
Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm
Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden
Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding
James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter
Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations
Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump
Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama
Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions
Curtis Heide – FBI Agent
Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama
Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States
Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump
Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division
Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm
Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump
Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"
Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein
Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller
Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General
Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump
Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office
Joe Biden – President of the United States
Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows
Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General
Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI
Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump
John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump
Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London
Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump
Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump
Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration
Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump
Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command
Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection
Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare
Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division
Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS
100
100
74
68
68
68
66
61
59
56
56
51
49
49
48
48
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
39
37
37
36
35
35
34
33
33
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
27
OptionProbability
Southern Europe (Iberian Peninsula, Italy, Balkans, Greece)
South America
Oceania
Western Europe (France to Poland)
South Asia
Middle East & Northern Africa
North America
East Asia
Mexico / Central America / Caribbean
Sub-Saharan Africa
South-East Asia
Eastern Europe / Central Asia (Former USSR)
Northern Europe (Nordics and British Isles)
36
25
19
15
15
13
11
11
10
10
10
9
7
OptionProbability
Turkey
Israel
France
China (mainland)
Saudi Arabia
India
Japan
UK
Canada
germany
Any south american or central american country besides Mexico
Argentina
Russia
South Korea
Brazil
Qatar
Spain
mexico
South Africa
The Netherlands
norway
El Salvador
Ukraine
Poland
North Korea
Djbouti
Taiwan
76
75
72
67
63
63
59
48
48
46
40
40
34
34
34
31
24
24
24
24
24
24
21
20
15
9
9
OptionProbability
City in Europe annexed and renamed
Volgograd → Stalingrad
City in Caucasus annexed and renamed
City in Central Asia annexed and renamed
No city renamed before 2050
Other
St Petersburg → Leningrad
St Petersburg → Petrograd
Moscow → any new name
St Petersburg → Putingrad or similar
29
16
8
8
8
8
6
6
5
5
OptionProbability
West London Orbital
Elizabeth line extension to Ebbsfleet
Bakerloo line extension to Lewisham
Thames Wharf DLR station
DLR extension to Thamesmead
Elizabeth line extension to Staines
Sutton Link tram line
Surrey Canal Road Overground station
Croxley Rail Link
Northern line extension to Clapham Junction
Castle Green Overground station
Central line extension to Harlow
Victoria line extension to Herne Hill
Crossrail 2
76
68
66
66
56
50
50
50
38
36
24
20
20
6
OptionProbability
North America
Asia and Australasia
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Western Europe
Latin America and the Caribbean
Middle East and North Africa
95
90
66
66
63
46
34
OptionProbability
Other
Libya
Central African Republic
Cameroon
Nigeria
Niger
19
16
16
16
16
16
OptionProbability
Ethiopia
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Uganda
Kenya
Central African Republic
Other
17
17
17
17
17
13
OptionProbability
Democratic Republic of The Congo
Uganda
Kenya
Central African Republic
Other
21
21
21
21
15