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Prediction markets for Central European

Euro: Will there be a €1000 banknote before 2030?

Jan 15, 8:47 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7.68%chance

19753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1691

892

Will Marine Le Pen be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election?

May 20, 8:13 AMMar 19, 11:59 PM

10.4%chance

11623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

294

34

Will the European Union introduce a digital euro as a central bank digital currency (CBDC) before the end of 2026?

Apr 5, 6:48 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

15.42%chance

18568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1320

927

EU officially a federation by January 1, 2040?

Mar 23, 8:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.8%chance

14547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

272

ECB cuts interest rates at September 11, 2025 meeting

Aug 20, 4:54 AMSep 11, 12:00 AM

17.26%chance

4383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

46

Will the European Badger (Meles meles) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 27, 9:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.75%chance

6357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

803

404

How will One piece live action season 2 change the IMDB rating?

Oct 2, 8:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19333

OptionProbability

Increase it (>= 8.5)

Keep it at same level (>= 8.2 && <= 8.4)

Decrese it slightly (>= 7.8 && <= 8.1)

Decrease it drastically (<= 7.7).

50

26

23

2

US and EU form transatlantic superstate by 2050?

Apr 30, 8:44 AMJan 2, 10:59 PM

8%chance

7295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

29

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

Will the ECB (deposit facility) interest rate be negative before 2033?

Apr 14, 1:10 AMDec 3, 12:00 PM

16.88%chance

10261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

334

106

Will the ECB adjust the 2% long run inflation target by 2028?

Jul 10, 8:38 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15.04%chance

7151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

297

101

Will Sabine Hossenfelder release any new music video by the end of 2025?

Nov 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

19.35%chance

7130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

49

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