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Prediction markets for Central Government

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.66%chance

5510864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7931

2959

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.01%chance

85507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15284

6552

Waymo reaches 2 billion miles with three or fewer at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 1:10 AMJan 2, 2:08 AM

73.84%chance

145378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1682

596

Pink Tide: Will leftists still govern a majority of Latin American countries at the end of 2026?

Dec 4, 2:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.3%chance

734299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1473

601

Sovereign nation publicly declares bitcoin reserves by 2030?

Aug 9, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.27%chance

91562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1402

713

If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?

Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.13%chance

181543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1341

866

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

China to announce cap on zinc by EOY 2026?

Dec 27, 12:06 AMJan 15, 11:59 PM

38.27%chance

8909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

788

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.85%chance

15727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

729

China cap on copper smelting by EOY 2026?

Dec 27, 12:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.16%chance

6600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1522

657

China to announce cap on lead output by EOY 2026?

Dec 27, 12:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.26%chance

5378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

910

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.51%chance

4140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

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