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Prediction markets for Central Government

Will Iran experience regime change in 2025?

Jan 1, 11:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

2.45%chance

269130234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6310

158

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

71.69%chance

6620117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1591

628

Will the US government declare a new holiday in memory of Charlie Kirk?

Sep 11, 5:08 PMNov 4, 6:00 PM

2.14%chance

3417580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6755

148

Indonesia issues government-backed stablecoin by 2025?

Oct 31, 10:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.6%chance

139221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7853

127

New country buys Bitcoin in 2025?

Jan 15, 1:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.71%chance

288321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

573

Waymo reaches 2 billion miles with three or fewer at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 1:10 AMJan 2, 2:08 AM

79.73%chance

145253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1983

504

Pink Tide: Will leftists still govern a majority of Latin American countries at the end of 2026?

Dec 4, 2:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.4%chance

724004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1278

703

Sovereign nation publicly declares bitcoin reserves by 2030?

Aug 9, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.27%chance

91562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1402

713

Jail or prison on the moon any time through 2033

Sep 20, 5:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.89%chance

201085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1777

913

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.85%chance

15727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

729

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.51%chance

4140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

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