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Prediction markets for Central Government

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.11%chance

9758226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23187

881

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.51%chance

257828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12918

7753

Waymo reaches 2 billion miles with three or fewer at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 1:10 AMJan 2, 2:08 AM

75.94%chance

155444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1778

563

Will cryptocurrencies replace fiat money before 2040?

Apr 21, 7:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.93%chance

102438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1944

515

If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?

Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.29%chance

252294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

788

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.46%chance

191770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2102

476

Sovereign nation publicly declares bitcoin reserves by 2030?

Aug 9, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.95%chance

101567

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1392

718

China to announce cap on zinc by EOY 2026?

Dec 27, 12:06 AMJan 15, 11:59 PM

27.79%chance

111411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1613

621

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.08%chance

161027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

977

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

China cap on copper smelting by EOY 2026?

Dec 27, 12:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.54%chance

8651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1473

679

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.4%chance

5142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

879

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