Central Government News
Prediction markets for Central Government
OptionVotes
17739
1192
Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.27%chance
217018
OptionVotes
13559
7386
Waymo reaches 2 billion miles with three or fewer at-fault fatalities?
Sep 27, 1:10 AMJan 2, 2:08 AM
74.88%chance
145394
OptionVotes
1728
580
If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?
Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.48%chance
241978
OptionVotes
1324
871
Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?
Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
19.6%chance
171639
OptionVotes
2026
494
Sovereign nation publicly declares bitcoin reserves by 2030?
Aug 9, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
65.95%chance
101567
OptionVotes
1392
718
OptionVotes
1105
906
OptionVotes
1275
785
OptionVotes
1031
884
LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?
Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
42.85%chance
15727
OptionVotes
1151
729
OptionVotes
1453
688
Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?
Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM
56.51%chance
4140
OptionVotes
1140
877