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Prediction markets for Central Government

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

8324930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7870

2985

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.3%chance

196946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13549

7392

Waymo reaches 2 billion miles with three or fewer at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 1:10 AMJan 2, 2:08 AM

73.84%chance

145378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1682

596

If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?

Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

241978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

871

Sovereign nation publicly declares bitcoin reserves by 2030?

Aug 9, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.95%chance

101567

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1392

718

China to announce cap on zinc by EOY 2026?

Dec 27, 12:06 AMJan 15, 11:59 PM

38.29%chance

9945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

788

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.32%chance

12941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1553

644

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.85%chance

15727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

729

China cap on copper smelting by EOY 2026?

Dec 27, 12:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.13%chance

7631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1453

688

China to announce cap on lead output by EOY 2026?

Dec 27, 12:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.15%chance

6605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

908

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.51%chance

4140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

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