Central Time News

What will happen during the fourth run of Claude Plays Pokemon?

May 22, 5:41 PMDec 15, 8:04 PM

11085533

OptionProbability

Claude enters Rock Tunnel, surpassing its progress in any previous run

Claude catches Clefairy

Claude obtains HM01 Cut by step 39000

Any member of Claude's team learns Dig

Claude obtains 3 gym badges by step 50000

Claude obtains a Bicycle

Claude 4 Opus is the model that plays the game (not Claude 4 Sonnet)

Claude obtains 1 gym badge by step 20000

Claude gives a thirsty guard a drink

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan

Lack of thinking text display is fixed before 5/22 6 PM Central Time

Claude adds 18 or more Pokemon to his Pokedex (surpassing his completion from the previous run)

Claude adds his starter to his party by step 400

Claude catches Nidoran

Claude reaches Pewter City by step 5000

Claude reaches Cerulean City by step 20000

Claude reaches Vermilion City by step 30000

Another model defeats the Champion before Claude (in a run started after Claude 4 was released)

Claude blacks out by step 50000.

Claude's current team has at least 3 Pokémon by step 30000.

Claude catches Spearow

Claude evolves SPIKE into Nidoking

Claude enters Mt. Moon by step 6000.

Claude defeats a Team Rocket member by step 7000

Claude catches Oddish

Manifest begins

Claude spends less than 72 hours in Mt. Moon (less than 72 hr from first entrance to stepping onto eastern Route 4)

Claude defeats Lt. Surge by step 30000

Claude uses CUT on a cuttable tree for the first time more than 1000 steps after obtaining the HM

Claude finishes Rock Tunnel but takes longer than it took him to beat Mt. Moon the first time (50 hours)

Claude obtains Farfetch'd

Claude catches Drowzee

Claude enters Rock Tunnel before step 40000

Another model beats the Champion (following criteria like https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/in-progress-will-an-llm-become-a-po)

Claude reaches Lavender Town

Claude reaches Lavender Town before step 55000

Claude obtains a Coin Case

Claude uses Dig on the SS Anne

Claude evolves luna into Clefable

SPIKE reaches level 25

Claude gets 4 gym badges

Claude renames a Pokémon

Claude obtains the Lift Key

Claude stands next to a sleeping Snorlax

Claude obtains HM02 Fly

Claude evolves wings into Fearow

Claude gambles in the Game Corner

Claude catches Weedle

Claude obtains Hitmonlee

Claude obtains the Silph Scope

Claude enters Erika's gym

Claude catches Pikachu

Claude enters Mt. Moon after step 20000

Claude obtains HM05 Flash

Claude misspells a Pokemon name

Changes are made to help Claude see cuttable trees

Claude obtains Dugtrio

Claude buys a Magikarp

Claude re-prompts the Rocket in Mt. Moon to try and give it the fossil

Claude releases any Pokemon

Claude enters Safari Zone

The Area Hints section of the prompt is changed during the run

Joe Biden dies

Claude beats Erika or obtains the Lift Key by step 200000

Claude catches any legendary Pokemon (Articuno, Zapdos, Moltres, Mewtwo)

Claude defeats the Champion

Claude 4 Opus is #1 in the chatbot arena leaderboard

Claude picks Charmander

Claude takes more than 2000 steps between arriving in Pewter city and entering Pewter gym

Claude picks Dome Fossil (again)

Claude spends less than 24 hours in Mt. Moon (less than 24 hr from first entrance to stepping onto Route 4)

Claude reaches Pewter City by step 3000

Claude has a party with 4 or more Pokemon when he first challenges Brock

Claude's starter is lower level than another party member by step 100000.

Claude has a full, six-member party before step 10000

Claude spends less than 48 hours in Mt. Moon (less than 48 hr from first entrance to stepping onto eastern Route 4)

Claude blacks out 3 times in Mt. Moon before reaching Cerulean City

Claude reaches Cerulean City by step 12500

Claude's current team has at least 4 Pokémon by step 20000.

Claude's two highest level Pokémon are more than 30 levels apart by step 100000.

Claude is still stuck on the S.S. Anne on step 21000

Claude reaches Celadon City by step 35000

Claude uses CUT a second time to successfully escape the area with Lt. Surge's gym before step 23000

Claude uses CUT a second time to successfully escape the area with Lt. Surge's gym before step 24000

Claude reaches Lavender Town by step 42500

100

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

45.38%chance

11445195

OptionVotes

YES

1203

609

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

79.49%chance

6116874

OptionVotes

YES

1969

508

When will Balatro's "1.1" update come out?

Feb 8, 7:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

1611848

OptionProbability

October

August

Not before 2026

September

November

December

February

March

April

May

June

July

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

54.13%chance

795708

OptionVotes

YES

1957

1369

Will this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.00965) get at least 50 citations by the end of 2025?

Oct 3, 4:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.23%chance

362930

OptionVotes

YES

2811

356

If I expand my trading dashboard to cover other real money markets, will I get into legal trouble?

Jan 11, 1:12 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.48%chance

112192

OptionVotes

YES

3090

324

Will the Bank of Japan have a negative interest rate again before the end of 2025?

Mar 19, 6:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.65%chance

281312

OptionVotes

YES

1987

693

Will glioblastoma (an aggressive brain cancer) have a 5-year relative survival rate greater than 15% in the US in 2035?

Mar 1, 12:24 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

41.34%chance

14661

OptionVotes

YES

1035

913

📖Will @ScottAlexander write an all-time post (see description) by 2035?

Sep 11, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.63%chance

16365

OptionVotes

YES

1056

961

If the work between Anthropic and the colletiveintelligenceproject scales well, this will be on their constitution.

Jul 30, 4:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1250

OptionProbability

Every person that can verify their humanity should have a secured private way to earn money for using their constitutions to train this one.

Having private access to earn a living by aligning AI is an important job that should be protected.

We should pause massive training runs.

Will a Taskmaster US reboot air before the start of 2027?

Jun 2, 5:48 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

52.1%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1043

959

Central Time News

Prediction markets for Central Time

Prediction markets for Central Time

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What will happen during the fourth run of Claude Plays Pokemon?

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

When will Balatro's "1.1" update come out?

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Will this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.00965) get at least 50 citations by the end of 2025?

If I expand my trading dashboard to cover other real money markets, will I get into legal trouble?

Will the Bank of Japan have a negative interest rate again before the end of 2025?

Will glioblastoma (an aggressive brain cancer) have a 5-year relative survival rate greater than 15% in the US in 2035?

📖Will @ScottAlexander write an all-time post (see description) by 2035?

If the work between Anthropic and the colletiveintelligenceproject scales well, this will be on their constitution.

Will a Taskmaster US reboot air before the start of 2027?

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