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Prediction markets for Centricity

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163510

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

57

39

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Jul 28, 8:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.59%chance

191390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

865

Will the two-sided platform facilitate at least 5,000 completed and paid ski and snowboard lesson bookings by 30.04.2027

Jan 9, 8:35 PMApr 29, 11:59 PM

6%chance

10726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

396

25

Will the BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by the end of 2026

Feb 2, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

7141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

48

Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?

Jun 5, 10:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.97%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

73

Will we get a PGS score of micronanoplastic toxicity (or resistance) by EOY2028?

Oct 16, 2:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the HAL AMCA have entered service in India by the end of 2035?

Jun 6, 9:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

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