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Prediction markets for CERT

Will the Virginia Redistricting Referendum be certified by June 30th?

Apr 27, 3:28 PMJun 30, 3:27 PM

4.15%chance

7520091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10981

94

Tesla certifies first tranche of 2025 CEO Performance Award by June 30, 2026?

Nov 24, 8:40 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

1.04%chance

1016492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9772

102

Will JD Vance refuse to certify any electoral college votes in the 2028 election?

Jul 16, 5:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10%chance

182665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

SOAI#9: Datacenter NIMBYism takes the US by storm and sways certain midterm/gubernatorial elections in 2026

Oct 9, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.76%chance

312054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

847

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

11920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

961

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari to hear the White House Ballroom case by the end of their 2026-2027 term?

Mar 31, 9:12 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

44.08%chance

8591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1126

888

Which eVTOL manufacturer will be first to achieve FAA certification?

Aug 10, 4:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9343

OptionProbability

Joby

Archer

Beta Technologies

Wisk

Removed - will resolve N/A

Other

Volocopter

42

18

14

12

6

6

1

Will I get an FAA Part 107 license, or Remote Pilot Certificate, within one year?

Feb 12, 8:44 AMFeb 12, 8:37 AM

60.51%chance

3110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Will USDA/FDA have a labeling program for certifying food with low microplastic load by 2030

Aug 24, 7:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.91%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will certain contemporary publicly available GPT models be generally accepted as conscious at inference time by 2100?

Nov 30, 5:15 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

31.03%chance

453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

112

will lauren de laguna still be bar certified in at least one state at the end of 2028?

Dec 5, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will there be a musician with a certified platinum album elected to Congress by the end of 2030?

Jul 13, 2:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.64%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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