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Prediction markets for CERT

Will JD Vance refuse to certify any electoral college votes in the 2028 election?

Jul 16, 5:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10%chance

182665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

SOAI#9: Datacenter NIMBYism takes the US by storm and sways certain midterm/gubernatorial elections in 2026

Oct 9, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.67%chance

301840

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1503

665

Tesla certifies first tranche of 2025 CEO Performance Award by June 30, 2026?

Nov 24, 8:40 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

27.89%chance

4718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1608

622

Which eVTOL manufacturer will be first to achieve FAA certification?

Aug 10, 4:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7326

OptionProbability

Joby

Archer

Beta Technologies

Wisk

Removed - will resolve N/A

Other

Volocopter

40

19

15

13

6

6

1

Will the Live-Action Legend of Zelda movie be “Certified Fresh” on Rotten Tomatoes? [Multiple Choice]

Nov 10, 8:26 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9286

OptionProbability

Yes, it will be Certified Fresh (75% or higher)

No, but it will Non-Certified Fresh (60%-74%)

No, it will be Rotten (Less than 60%)

No live-action Legend of Zelda movie will release by market close

40

32

25

3

Will an energy drink be certified microplastic-free (or minimal-microplastic) by EOY2026?

Sep 19, 4:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

6103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will USDA/FDA have a labeling program for certifying food with low microplastic load by 2030

Aug 24, 7:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.91%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.91%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

833

Will certain contemporary publicly available GPT models be generally accepted as conscious at inference time by 2100?

Nov 30, 5:15 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

31.03%chance

453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

112

Exit valuation of Certainly Health (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

59

14

14

14

will lauren de laguna still be bar certified in at least one state at the end of 2028?

Dec 5, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will there be a musician with a certified platinum album elected to Congress by the end of 2030?

Jul 13, 2:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.64%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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