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Prediction markets for CERT

SOAI#9: Datacenter NIMBYism takes the US by storm and sways certain midterm/gubernatorial elections in 2026

Oct 9, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.7%chance

352813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

910

Will the US or China impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold before 2030

Jul 13, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.66%chance

192688

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1353

739

Will JD Vance refuse to certify any electoral college votes in the 2028 election?

Jul 16, 5:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10%chance

182665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.86%chance

13931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

959

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari to hear the White House Ballroom case by the end of their 2026-2027 term?

Mar 31, 9:12 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

38.88%chance

14913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1254

798

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari to hear the the NJ prediction market case by the end of 2026?

Sep 2, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.36%chance

6618

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1295

772

Which eVTOL manufacturer will be first to achieve FAA certification?

Aug 10, 4:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9343

OptionProbability

Joby

Archer

Beta Technologies

Wisk

Removed - will resolve N/A

Other

Volocopter

42

18

14

12

6

6

1

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant cert or agree to hear arguments in the Texas DACA case by February 27, 2027? (2/27/27)

Aug 31, 2:39 PMFeb 26, 11:59 PM

12.03%chance

3284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

66

Will an energy drink be certified microplastic-free (or minimal-microplastic) by EOY2026?

Sep 19, 4:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.09%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

Will USDA/FDA have a labeling program for certifying food with low microplastic load by 2030

Aug 24, 7:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.91%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will certain contemporary publicly available GPT models be generally accepted as conscious at inference time by 2100?

Nov 30, 5:15 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

31.03%chance

453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

112

How many U.S. teaching positions will LPI estimate were vacant or filled by teachers without full certification in 2027?

Aug 8, 5:31 AMAug 2, 5:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Under 400,000

400,000–424,999

425,000–449,999

450,000–474,999

475,000 or more

20

20

20

20

20

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