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Top stories

CFTC Deploys Nasdaq Surveillance Platform to Police Expanding Crypto Markets

Prediction Markets

CFTC Deploys Nasdaq Surveillance Platform to Police Expanding Crypto Markets

Authors

9

3 months ago

Johnson Exit Leaves CFTC With Single Commissioner as Crypto Industry Pressures Congress

US Gov Appointments

Johnson Exit Leaves CFTC With Single Commissioner as Crypto Industry Pressures Congress

Authors

13

3 months ago

CFTC Clarifies FBOT Rules, Opening U.S. Access to Offshore Crypto Exchanges

CFTC Clarifies FBOT Rules, Opening U.S. Access to Offshore Crypto Exchanges

Authors

32

3 months ago

Prediction markets for CFTC

Who will be confirmed by the Senate as the next Chairman of the CFTC?

Dec 13, 5:37 AMDec 31, 1:03 AM

26257496

OptionProbability

Another person

Caroline Pham

Brian Quintenz

Summer Mersinger

Jill Sommers

Josh Sterling

82

10

3

2

2

2

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Apr 16, 9:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.3%chance

3523380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2385

405

Will a Manifold user attempt to Whistleblow on Manifold to CFTC before the end of 2025?

Apr 24, 3:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.89%chance

249770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4605

86

Will Polymarket get investigated by the CFTC again before 2027?

Jul 30, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.92%chance

202818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1691

591

Will a FOIA request reveal that Kalshi was primarily responsible for CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt?

Aug 8, 6:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.15%chance

302586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2013

786

Will the Supreme Court rule on PredictIt vs. CFTC before 2026?

Nov 14, 2:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.58%chance

232161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2128

831

Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold because of sweepstakes before the end of 2025?

Apr 18, 7:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.6%chance

102156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

45

Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 25, 5:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.62%chance

16872

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1447

899

Will a CFTC exchange be clearing sports outcome contracts on...?

Sep 8, 6:37 PMJan 2, 7:31 PM

1420

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2026

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2030

80

69

65

61

50

Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?

Jan 31, 9:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.74%chance

12239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

934

Will the CFTC ban derivative bets on US elections by the end of 2025?

Apr 28, 2:37 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.19%chance

11235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

307

210

Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold Markets for transactions involving the exchange of mana by 2030?

Nov 25, 12:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.27%chance

6157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

43

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