CFTC News

CFTC Deploys Nasdaq Surveillance Platform to Police Expanding Crypto Markets

5 months ago

Johnson Exit Leaves CFTC With Single Commissioner as Crypto Industry Pressures Congress

US Legislation

US Gov Appointments

Regulation

Johnson Exit Leaves CFTC With Single Commissioner as Crypto Industry Pressures Congress

5 months ago

CFTC Clarifies FBOT Rules, Opening U.S. Access to Offshore Crypto Exchanges

Law

Regulation

Politics

CFTC Clarifies FBOT Rules, Opening U.S. Access to Offshore Crypto Exchanges

5 months ago

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Apr 16, 9:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.3%chance

3523380

OptionVotes

YES

2385

405

Will the Supreme Court rule on PredictIt vs. CFTC before 2026?

Nov 14, 2:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.38%chance

232911

OptionVotes

YES

2878

780

Will Polymarket get investigated by the CFTC again before 2027?

Jul 30, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

24.81%chance

212868

OptionVotes

YES

1741

574

When will a major new policy on prediction markets be released by CFTC?

Apr 3, 1:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82412

OptionProbability

Before the end of Apr 2025

Before the end of Jan 2025

Before the end of Feb 2025

Before the end of Mar 2025

Before the end of April 2024

Before the end of May 2024

Before the end of Jun 2024

Before the end of July 2024

Before the end of Aug 2024

Before the end of Sep 2024

Before the end of Nov 2024

Before the end of Dec 2024

Which cases brought by or maintained by the federal government will be dropped during the Trump presidency?

Dec 9, 2:25 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

72197

OptionProbability

KalshiEX LLC v. CFTC (ban on prediction markets for elections)

Clarke v. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (PredictIt Case)

Ryan v. FTC (Non-compete ban case)

United States v. Sam Bankman-Fried

U.S. and Plaintiff States v. Google LLC (Google antitrust case)

Federal Trade Commission, et al. v. Amazon.com, Inc. (Amazon antitrust case)

U.S and Plaintiff States v. Apple Inc. (Apple antitrust case)

United States v. Binance Holdings (charges against Binance for iolating several laws, including the Bank Secrecy Act, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and the Commodity Exchange Act)

Federal Trade Commission v. Microsoft Corp. and Activision Blizzard, Inc (Attempt to block Microsoft's merger/acquisition of Activision Blizzard)

United States v. Meta Platforms, Inc. (Meta antitrust case)

Food and Drug Administration v. Wages and White Lion Investments, LLC (E-cigarette supreme court case)

TikTok Inc. v. Merrick Garland (TikTok Ban)

United States v. Skrmetti (ban on transgender health care for minors)

100

When will the CFTC take action against Polymarket?

Nov 1, 3:18 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

121524

OptionProbability

2026

2029

Not by end of 2029/never

2027

2028

2025

2023

2024

Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 25, 5:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.62%chance

16872

OptionVotes

YES

1447

899

Will a CFTC exchange be clearing sports outcome contracts on...?

Sep 8, 6:37 PMJan 2, 7:31 PM

1420

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2026

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2030

Will it be easy to get a license as a Designated Contract Market through the CFTC in 2030?

Jan 22, 2:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.12%chance

2351

OptionVotes

YES

431

Will the CFTC ban derivative bets on US elections by the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 4:34 PMDec 31, 4:33 PM

14.71%chance

6241

OptionVotes

YES

241

Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?

Jan 31, 9:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.74%chance

12239

OptionVotes

YES

1117

934

Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold Markets for transactions involving the exchange of mana by 2030?

Nov 25, 12:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.27%chance

6157

OptionVotes

YES

223

CFTC News

Top stories

Prediction markets for CFTC

Prediction markets for CFTC

Prediction markets for CFTC

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the Supreme Court rule on PredictIt vs. CFTC before 2026?

Will Polymarket get investigated by the CFTC again before 2027?

When will a major new policy on prediction markets be released by CFTC?

Which cases brought by or maintained by the federal government will be dropped during the Trump presidency?

When will the CFTC take action against Polymarket?

Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will a CFTC exchange be clearing sports outcome contracts on...?

Will it be easy to get a license as a Designated Contract Market through the CFTC in 2030?

Will the CFTC ban derivative bets on US elections by the end of 2026?

Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?

Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold Markets for transactions involving the exchange of mana by 2030?

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