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Top stories

CFTC Deploys Nasdaq Surveillance Platform to Police Expanding Crypto Markets

Prediction Markets

CFTC Deploys Nasdaq Surveillance Platform to Police Expanding Crypto Markets

Authors

9

1 year ago

Johnson Exit Leaves CFTC With Single Commissioner as Crypto Industry Pressures Congress

US Gov Appointments

Johnson Exit Leaves CFTC With Single Commissioner as Crypto Industry Pressures Congress

Authors

13

1 year ago

CFTC Clarifies FBOT Rules, Opening U.S. Access to Offshore Crypto Exchanges

CFTC Clarifies FBOT Rules, Opening U.S. Access to Offshore Crypto Exchanges

Authors

32

11 months ago

Prediction markets for CFTC

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Apr 16, 9:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.48%chance

3623537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2327

418

Will the Supreme Court rule on PredictIt vs. CFTC before 2026?

Nov 14, 2:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.03%chance

274159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2276

819

Will Polymarket get investigated by the CFTC again before 2027?

Jul 30, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12.08%chance

253847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2698

371

Will PMEX Markets be approved as a DCM by the CFTC?

Feb 17, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78%chance

72435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

188

53

When will the CFTC take action against Polymarket?

Nov 1, 3:18 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

131554

OptionProbability

2026

2029

Not by end of 2029/never

2027

2028

2025

2023

2024

17

17

17

13

12

5

0

0

Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 25, 5:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.61%chance

171122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1697

866

Will a CFTC exchange be clearing sports outcome contracts on...?

Sep 8, 6:37 PMJan 2, 7:31 PM

1420

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2026

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2030

80

69

65

61

50

Will the CFTC ban derivative bets on US elections by the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 4:34 PMDec 31, 4:33 PM

14.71%chance

6241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

42

Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?

Jan 31, 9:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.74%chance

12239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

934

Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold Markets for transactions involving the exchange of mana by 2030?

Nov 25, 12:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.27%chance

6157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

43

How many CFTC commissioners on July 4, 2027?

Jul 11, 5:44 PMJul 12, 3:59 AM

293

OptionProbability

1

5

4

2

3

52

21

11

9

7

Will the CFTC clear Polymarket for US traders by end of 2027?

Jun 15, 9:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.3%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

68

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