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Top stories

Coinbase Launches U.S. CFTC-Regulated Perpetual Futures for BTC and ETH on July 21 With Up to 10x Leverage

Coinbase Launches U.S. CFTC-Regulated Perpetual Futures for BTC and ETH on July 21 With Up to 10x Leverage

Authors

35

1 month ago

Polymarket Cleared by Regulators, Buys QCX for $112 Million to Re-Enter US

Prediction Markets

Polymarket Cleared by Regulators, Buys QCX for $112 Million to Re-Enter US

Authors

65

12 days ago

Prediction markets for CFTC

Who will be confirmed by the Senate as the next Chairman of the CFTC?

Dec 13, 5:37 AMDec 31, 1:03 AM

21229103

OptionProbability

Brian Quintenz

Caroline Pham

Summer Mersinger

Jill Sommers

Josh Sterling

Another person

96

1

1

1

1

1

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Apr 16, 9:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.59%chance

3423330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2335

416

Will a Manifold user attempt to Whistleblow on Manifold to CFTC before the end of 2025?

Apr 24, 3:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.81%chance

213626

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3261

149

When will a major new policy on prediction markets be released by CFTC?

Apr 3, 1:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82412

OptionProbability

Before the end of Apr 2025

Before the end of Jan 2025

Before the end of Feb 2025

Before the end of Mar 2025

Before the end of April 2024

Before the end of May 2024

Before the end of Jun 2024

Before the end of July 2024

Before the end of Aug 2024

Before the end of Sep 2024

Before the end of Nov 2024

Before the end of Dec 2024

59

6

6

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Polymarket get investigated by the CFTC again before 2027?

Jul 30, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40.35%chance

192343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1216

823

Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold because of sweepstakes before the end of 2025?

Apr 18, 7:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.6%chance

102156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

45

Will the Supreme Court rule on PredictIt vs. CFTC before 2026?

Nov 14, 2:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.78%chance

222111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2078

835

Will a FOIA request reveal that Kalshi was primarily responsible for CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt?

Aug 8, 6:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.03%chance

302086

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1508

848

When will the CFTC take action against Polymarket?

Nov 1, 3:18 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

101264

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2029

Not by end of 2029/never

2027

2028

2024

2023

35

24

17

17

13

12

1

0

Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 25, 5:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.62%chance

16872

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1447

899

Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?

Jan 31, 9:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.74%chance

12239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

934

Will the CFTC ban derivative bets on US elections by the end of 2025?

Apr 28, 2:37 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.19%chance

11235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

307

210

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