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Top stories

CFTC Deploys Nasdaq Surveillance Platform to Police Expanding Crypto Markets

Prediction Markets

CFTC Deploys Nasdaq Surveillance Platform to Police Expanding Crypto Markets

Authors

9

7 months ago

Johnson Exit Leaves CFTC With Single Commissioner as Crypto Industry Pressures Congress

US Gov Appointments

Johnson Exit Leaves CFTC With Single Commissioner as Crypto Industry Pressures Congress

Authors

13

7 months ago

CFTC Clarifies FBOT Rules, Opening U.S. Access to Offshore Crypto Exchanges

CFTC Clarifies FBOT Rules, Opening U.S. Access to Offshore Crypto Exchanges

Authors

32

7 months ago

Prediction markets for CFTC

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Apr 16, 9:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.3%chance

3523380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2385

405

Will Polymarket get investigated by the CFTC again before 2027?

Jul 30, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

14.3%chance

243581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2448

409

Will the Supreme Court rule on PredictIt vs. CFTC before 2026?

Nov 14, 2:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.36%chance

232912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2888

780

When will a major new policy on prediction markets be released by CFTC?

Apr 3, 1:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82412

OptionProbability

Before the end of Apr 2025

Before the end of Jan 2025

Before the end of Feb 2025

Before the end of Mar 2025

Before the end of April 2024

Before the end of May 2024

Before the end of Jun 2024

Before the end of July 2024

Before the end of Aug 2024

Before the end of Sep 2024

Before the end of Nov 2024

Before the end of Dec 2024

59

6

6

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will PMEX Markets be approved as a DCM by the CFTC?

Feb 17, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.84%chance

72212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

When will the CFTC take action against Polymarket?

Nov 1, 3:18 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

121524

OptionProbability

2026

2029

Not by end of 2029/never

2027

2028

2025

2023

2024

21

17

17

13

12

5

0

0

Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 25, 5:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.62%chance

16872

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1447

899

Will a CFTC exchange be clearing sports outcome contracts on...?

Sep 8, 6:37 PMJan 2, 7:31 PM

1420

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2026

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2030

80

69

65

61

50

Will it be easy to get a license as a Designated Contract Market through the CFTC in 2030?

Jan 22, 2:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.07%chance

3381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will the CFTC ban derivative bets on US elections by the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 4:34 PMDec 31, 4:33 PM

14.71%chance

6241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

42

Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?

Jan 31, 9:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.74%chance

12239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

934

Will a DCM be approved in <180 days by the CFTC before 2029?

Mar 5, 6:13 PMDec 31, 7:13 PM

40.98%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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