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Chain News

Will Anthropic escape the "supply chain risk" designation by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.09%chance

22854159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18081

7442

Will the AI-generated Bitcoin song "Chain of Infinite" by Lunr Reverb go viral and reach 1,000,000 streams before 2027?

Mar 15, 8:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.46%chance

273003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

243

41

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.45%chance

281988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

883

Will the tightening of the yttrium oxide supply chain impact exceed 50 on a scale of 1-100 by August 26, 2026?

Feb 27, 9:06 PMAug 26, 9:06 PM

71.1%chance

41696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

157

64

Will someone disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain by disrupting high-purity quartz mines by EOY 2028?

Mar 11, 10:50 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

10.58%chance

321438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

902

Will an American national fast food chain use lab-grown/cultured meat in a product by 2030?

Jan 16, 11:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.48%chance

36931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

806

AI starts crypto trading, seize the entirety of value from every chain and token, ultimately driving them to zero? 📉

Apr 1, 11:18 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

6.17%chance

12628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1385

915

Will "Towards a Typology of Strange LLM Chains-of-T..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 10, 9:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.91%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

974

Will there be a significant on-chain compute marketplace before 2031?

Oct 14, 7:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.08%chance

6111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will Trump's tariff policies cause copper supply chain efficiency to fall below 50 by March 2026?

Feb 21, 9:02 PMJun 21, 9:01 PM

54.81%chance

291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will there be a mass product, food, hotel chain, restaurant chain, or drink with the branding RICON by 2040

Aug 2, 9:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.16%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will "Chain of Thought Monitorability: A New and Fr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 15, 9:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.13%chance

244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

866

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