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Prediction markets for Chain GPT

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

10.51%chance

294613

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2320

700

Will Manifold do a crypto airdrop before Jan 1st, 2028?

Mar 26, 9:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.05%chance

172705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

324

215

Size of smallest open-source LLM marching GPT 3.5's performance in 2025? (GB)

Apr 6, 2:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82018

OptionProbability

1 - 1.99 GB

0.5 - 0.99 GB

Less than 0.49 GB

2 - 3.99 GB

4 - 5.99 GB

6 - 8 GB

Above 8 GB

50

19

14

8

3

3

3

Will "large reasoning models" significantly outperform traditional LLMs in creative writing by 2026?

Jan 11, 7:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.7%chance

151883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1468

681

When will a language model be fine-tuned via self-play or expert iteration and achieve significant performance increase?

Dec 17, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:47 PM

12.92%chance

14272

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1001

976

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