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OptionProbability
Sexism and racism, among other forms of prejudice, are responsible for worse health outcomes, and it’s not overly dramatic for people to treat those issues as public health/safety concerns.
Prediction markets are good
[*] ...and things will improve in the future
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
Authoritarian populism is bad actually
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Most organized religion are false
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Prolonged school closures because of COVID were socially devastating.
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
Nuclear power is by far the best solution to climate change. [N]
Pineapple pizza tastes good
The Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics
Humans have a responsibility to figure out what if anything we can do about wildlife suffering.
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
First-past-the-post electoral systems are not merely flawed but outright less democratic than proportional or preferential alternatives
Liberal-democracy is good actually
Peeing in the shower is good and everyone should do it
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
We need a bigger welfare state than we have now.
Many amphetamines and psychedelics have tremendous therapeutic value when guided by an established practitioner.
The proliferation of microplastics will be viewed as more harmful to the environment than burning fossil fuels, in the long term
American agents are in the highest positions in government for more than half the world.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
We should give every American food stamps, in a fixed dollar amount, with no means testing or work requirements or disqualification for criminal convictions.
Metaculus will take over Manifold in more serious topics, and Manifold will be known as the "unserious" prediction market site
Given what we know about the social and health effects of being fired, even if abolishing at will employment has efficiency costs it is likely worth it.
The overall state of the world is pretty good... [*]
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Dreams analysis is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.
Mobile UX will be a key explaining factor in explaining the stories of Manifold and Metaculus.
If a developed nation moves from democratic to authoritarian government today, it should be expected to end up poorer, weaker, sicker, and stupider.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
The United States doesn't need a strong third party.
Being a billionaire is morally wrong.
Racial Colorblindness is the only way to defeat racism
People will look back on using animal products as a moral disgrace on the level of chattel slavery.
There's a reasonable chance of a militant green/communist movement that gains popular support in the coming decade.
Eating meat is morally wrong in most cases.
Political libertarianism
You should bet NO on this option
The Windows kernel is better than Linux; it’s just all the bloat piled on top that makes it worse
[N], and to the extent climate activists are promoting other kinds of solutions, they are actively making the situation worse by diverting attention and resources from nuclear power.
White people are the least racist of any racial group
Technology is not making our lives easier or more fulfilling.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
God is evil
A sandwich is a type of hot dog
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Astrology is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development.
Mereological nihilism (composite objects don't exist)
It's acceptable for our systems of punishment to be retributive in part
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
China not having real democracy does more good than harm
Dentistry is mostly wasted effort.
Moral Hazard isn’t real, and all the purported instances of it can be chalked up to coincidence or confounding variables
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon
Governments should not support parents for having children that they cannot take care of
Mass surveillance (security cameras everywhere) has more positives than negatives
Donald Trump would have been a better president than Joe Biden
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
Future generations will say that on balance the world reacted appropriately after learning that fossil fuels cause climate change. That the balance between addressing the problem and slowing economies was just about right.
Humans don't have free will.
The next American moon landing will be faked
AI art is better than human art
Communism just wasn't implemented well, next time it will work
The human race should voluntarily choose to go extinct via nonviolent means (antinatalism).
The first American moon landing was faked
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
Astrology is actually true.
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