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Top stories

AI Causes 10,000 Layoffs from January to July 2025, Spurs US Data Center Boom Amid Power, Talent, and Regulatory Challenges

AI Causes 10,000 Layoffs from January to July 2025, Spurs US Data Center Boom Amid Power, Talent, and Regulatory Challenges

Authors

8

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Challenger

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

15196553

OptionProbability

1,750 - 1,899

1,600 - 1,749

1,450 - 1,599

1,900 - 2,049

1,300 - 1,449

2,050 - 2,199

2,200 - 2,349

1 - 999

1,000 - 1,149

1,150 - 1,299

2,350 - 2,499

2,500 or greater

54

16

9

8

4

3

3

1

1

1

0

0

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

57.92%chance

5215118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1716

1276

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223062

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2055-2100

2045-2049

2050-2054

32

26

12

12

10

8

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

88.24%chance

182653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2633

503

Will the CoolFold 100 Challenge get 1000 traders by EOY 2025?

Jan 7, 11:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.12%chance

202222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3084

588

Will Elon Musk challenges Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, OR Jensen Huang to a fight before end of 2025?

Apr 1, 12:13 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

5.87%chance

231932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2787

727

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2025?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

87.08%chance

321155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1335

912

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.51%chance

271054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1536

912

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.34%chance

24744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

804

DARPA Lift challenge participants achieve over 4X lift ratio?

Nov 14, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.3%chance

2123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

910

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Sep 22, 7:51 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM

52.66%chance

11112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

997

Will the DARPA Lift challenge have qualifying participants with a lift ratio of over 2X?

Nov 14, 10:35 PMDec 31, 10:22 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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