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OptionProbability
Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima 🥉🥉
Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer
Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina 🥉
Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius
Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris
Wolverine - Gulo gulo 🥉
Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus
Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉
House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus
Coyote - Canis latrans
[⚔️Underdog] Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria 🥉
[⚔️Frontrunner] Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx 🥉🥈
❌Defeated: Lion - Panthera leo 🥈🥉🥉[beat by Dolphin]
❌Defeated: Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus [beat by Giant Nematode]
❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]
❌Defeated: Dog - Canis familiaris 🥉🥈 [beat by Leopard seal]
❌Defeated: Cat - Felis catus 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Tiger - Panthera tigris 🥈🥈 [beat by Sulfur Cave Molly]
❌Defeated: Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus 🥉 [beat by Leopard Seal]
❌Defeated: Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈[beat by Giant Nematode]
❌Defeated: Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca [beat by Polar Bear]
❌Defeated: Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri 🥉 [beat by Wolverine]
❌Defeated: Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum [beat by Great black-backed gull]
❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈 [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus 🥈 [beat byt Cat]
❌Defeated: Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus 🥈🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Red Fox]
🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum
❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]
🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)
❌Defeated: Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias [beat by Lion]
🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Wolf - Canis lupus [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes 🥉🥈 [beat by Giant Pacific Octopus]
❌Defeated: Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉🥉 [beat by Western Lowland Gorilla]
❌Defeated: Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus [beat by Dog]🥉🥉🥈
❌Defeated: Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana [beat by Cat]
❌Defeated: Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus [beat by Ice Worm]
❌Defeated: Great evening bat - Ia io [beat by Lion]
❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]
❌Defeated: Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti [beat by Cat]
❌Defeated: Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana [beat by Red Fox]
❌Defeated: Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini 🥉[beat by Ice Worm]
❌Defeated: Triceratops - Triceratops horridus [beat by Red Volcano Sponge]
❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]
❌Defeated: Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor [beat by Honey Badger]
❌Defeated: Kiwi - Apteryx australis [beat by Dog]
❌Defeated: Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus 🥉[beat by Platypus]
❌Defeated: Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus 🥉🥉[beat by Tiger]
❌Defeated: Meerkat - Suricata suricatta 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait]
❌Defeated: Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Tiger]
❌Defeated: Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus 🥉 [beat by Western lowland gorilla]
❌Defeated: Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Penguin]
❌Defeated: Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri [beat by Lion]
❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]
❌Defeated: New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉 [beat by Western lowland gorilla]
❌Defeated: Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]
Other
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
6
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
2h marathon has been officially broken by a human
Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans
New Pope after Francis
three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved
five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved
Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point
Taylor Swift has been married
Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point
ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)
Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again
S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)
xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month
Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube
USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)
publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably
Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter
True Detective Season 5 released
Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport
Destiny is still regularly livestreaming
Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks
Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons
Putin still leader of Russia
Xi still leader of China
No humans on the moon since Apollo
Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta
Palworld is still able to be played through Steam
a twitter account has reached 500M followers
Charles still King of UK
Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates
Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan
One Piece manga is still going (original series)
The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen
Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks
Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )
At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business
Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling
@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username
the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)
George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)
Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)
Winner of 2028 election is Democrat
Nintendo still manufacturing Switch
Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online
The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units
Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once
Family Guy has ended
Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo
the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)
Kingdom Hearts 4 has released
Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison
prong.studio still operational and selling products
Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)
Kojima's Physint game has released
Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time
Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill
Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic
Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)
Petco will have filed for bankruptcy
Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions
Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close
A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)
at least one spider man movie releases each year
1200 or more official pokemon
Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use
Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month
Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)
Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still
Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)
there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)
Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer
Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already
The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)
Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)
A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015
The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)
Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought
jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one
Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing
X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)
Amazon #1 book is a self-help book
A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017
NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere
I'll be dead.
Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician
There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry
China - Taiwan war / invasion begins
Dwarf Fortress ceases active development
doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight
Taylor Swift has been divorced
All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving
Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom
a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons
At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power
China has landed a human on the moon
Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States
Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)
Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use
someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating
a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated
Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)
JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States
Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States
Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States
No humans exist
Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events
Jimmy Carter is still alive
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
98
92
91
91
86
85
84
82
81
80
80
79
78
78
74
73
71
70
70
69
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67
67
66
66
65
62
60
59
57
55
55
55
55
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
49
47
45
45
44
40
40
38
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35
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34
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31
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30
30
30
30
29
29
28
28
27
26
24
23
21
20
20
19
19
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
11
10
7
5
3
3
1
0
0
OptionProbability
Red Dead Redemption 3
Half Life 3
Alan Wake 3
Guild Wars 3
Slime Rancher 3
Frostpunk 3
Risk of Rain 3
Overcooked 3
Death Stranding 3
Dead Island 3
Helldivers 3
Hades 3
Destiny 3
Banjo Kazooie 3
Remnant 3
Hollow Knight 3
Starcraft 3
Titanfall 3
Supreme Commander 3
World of Goo 3
Left 4 Dead 3
Slay the Spire 3
Chameleon Twist 3
Rivals of Aether 3
Super Mario Galaxy 3
Battle for Middle Earth 3
Planetside 3
Hello Neighbor 3
Bioshock 3 (after Infinite)
Team Fortress 3
Counter Strike 3
Portal 3
Overwatch 3
Hotline Miami 3
Prison Architect 3
85
84
83
82
80
79
70
70
69
65
65
57
54
53
50
50
47
45
45
43
42
40
39
38
36
36
35
34
28
26
20
18
16
6
4
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1554
232
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1730
753
OptionProbability
Amy Rose
Sonic the Hedgehog - voiced by Ben Schwartz
Miles “Tails” Prower
Metal Sonic
Knuckles the Echidna
Tom “Donut Lord” Wachowski
Maddie “Pretzel Lady” Wachowski
Agent Stone
Dr. Robotnik - Jim Carrey portrays some Eggman / clone / impersonator
Ozzy the Golden Retriever
Dr. Robotnik - confirmed to be Eggman and not a clone / impersonator
Sonic the Hedgehog - Super Form
Wade Whipple
Metal Sonic - specifically Neo Metal or Metal Overlord Form
Iblis
Gerald Robotnik
Rouge the Bat
Cream the Rabbit
Big the Cat
Silver the Hedgehog
Longclaw the Owl
Jack Sinclair
Shadow the Hedgehog - confirmed to be the original Shadow
‘Ugly Sonic’ - a character whose appearance clearly alludes to the pre-backlash 2020 design
Blaze the Cat
Chaos
Chief Pachacamac
Tikal the Echidna
Shadow the Hedgehog - confirmed to be a clone or impersonator
Sonic the Hedgehog - two Sonics (not impersonators) interact with each other as a result of time / space shenanigans
Vector the Crocodile
Espio the Chameleon
Charmy Bee
Eggman Nega
Mephiles the Dark
Zavok ❤️
Infinite the Jackal
Sonic the Hedgehog - Werehog Form
Mighty the Armadillo
Princess Elise
99
94
92
90
85
79
77
77
66
59
50
50
50
49
38
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
28
24
24
24
24
24
24
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
13
10
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1664
801
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1225
879
OptionVotes
NO
YES
108
92
OptionProbability
2030 / later / never
2026
2027
2028
2029
2025
75
6
6
6
6
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
248
186
OptionVotes
YES
NO
180
120