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Prediction markets for Chang Lab

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26.85%chance

22594846018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18983

4592

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.53%chance

298290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3188

667

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.07%chance

347402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

688

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.01%chance

216599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5609

1010

In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?

Dec 28, 4:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.37%chance

575713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2294

368

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Aug 30, 6:29 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

89.45%chance

265266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2912

343

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

Aug 30, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.21%chance

283763

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1653

605

Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory?

Nov 24, 5:25 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

6.23%chance

262905

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2481

806

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.86%chance

101503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1653

607

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Mar 1, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.76%chance

161379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1743

574

Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?

Aug 8, 1:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.39%chance

16948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1497

789

What will the top score on Epoch AI's Chess Puzzles benchmark be on November 30, 2026?

Nov 1, 4:26 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 78%

78% to below 82%

82% to below 88%

88% or higher

25

25

25

25

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