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Prediction markets for Chang Lab

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.61%chance

21704599344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19475

4417

Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?

Oct 21, 5:26 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

6.27%chance

738867

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4011

973

In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?

Dec 28, 4:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.15%chance

534183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

748

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.9%chance

194054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4453

1165

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89%chance

223985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2060

771

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

935

Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory?

Nov 24, 5:25 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

4.87%chance

252306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3082

771

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Mar 1, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.85%chance

131165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1533

652

Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?

Aug 8, 1:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.39%chance

16948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1497

789

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

[Carlini questions] AI system exists that has significant CBRN risk

Mar 24, 2:21 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5158

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

87

85

83

75

39

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027

Mar 3, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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