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Prediction markets for Chang Lab

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

27.4%chance

22164710063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18778

4668

Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?

Oct 21, 5:26 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

6.27%chance

738867

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4011

973

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.72%chance

205734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4744

1120

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89%chance

234935

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2060

771

In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?

Dec 28, 4:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.15%chance

534183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

748

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

184149

OptionProbability

Moonshot (Kimi)

Baidu (Ernie)

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

DeepSeek

Alibaba (Qwen)

Z.ai

Nvidia

Mistral

Thinking Machines Lab

Reka AI

Cohere (Command R+)

Safe Superintelligence / SSI

NexusFlow (Athene)

AI21 Labs (Jamba)

01 AI (Yi)

100

100

100

100

100

83

82

80

40

39

20

18

18

17

16

15

11

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.89%chance

253805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

922

Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory?

Nov 24, 5:25 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

5.22%chance

262485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2899

781

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Mar 1, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.85%chance

131165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1533

652

Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?

Aug 8, 1:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.39%chance

16948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1497

789

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

Will there be a waiting list for kidney transplants in the US by end of 2030?

Oct 17, 8:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

90.06%chance

7227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

351

99

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