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Prediction markets for Change Healthcare
Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.51%chance
195543
OptionVotes
10062
2804
Will Semaglutide cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?
Jun 2, 7:29 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
82%chance
264029
OptionVotes
2135
468
Will human civilisation collapse due to climate change before 2040?
Aug 4, 4:16 PMAug 4, 10:59 PM
4.23%chance
141393
OptionVotes
1331
953
Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?
May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
55.55%chance
11951
OptionVotes
1118
895
Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?
Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
5331
OptionProbability
55
53
51
50
28
Will Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028?
May 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
55.22%chance
2225
OptionVotes
1110
901
Will Semaglutide cost less than $1000 per year before 2031?
Jun 21, 11:59 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM
84.67%chance
5179
OptionVotes
235
43
Will Semaglutide cost less than $1000 per year before 2030?
Jun 24, 11:20 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM
83.68%chance
5145
OptionVotes
226
44
Will Keytruda cost less than $5000 per year before 2030?
Jun 21, 12:52 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
25.27%chance
4133
OptionVotes
172
58
Will Keytruda cost less than $10k per year before 2030?
Jun 10, 9:38 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
59.17%chance
8121
OptionVotes
120
83
Will Keytruda cost less than $2000 per year before 2030?
Jun 24, 12:00 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
44.13%chance
249
OptionVotes
113
89