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Top stories

Israel's Dermer Meets Syrian, Qatari Officials in Paris on Border, Gaza Talks

US Foreign Policy

Israel's Dermer Meets Syrian, Qatari Officials in Paris on Border, Gaza Talks

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4

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Channel 12

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?

Jun 16, 8:04 AMJun 30, 6:59 AM

17.01%chance

14932163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6620

956

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 15?

Jun 17, 1:36 AMJul 16, 6:59 AM

42.53%chance

454720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

860

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 31?

Jun 18, 1:03 AMAug 1, 6:59 AM

65.81%chance

263996

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1387

721

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM

55.35%chance

183221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

769

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

22.58%chance

61644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1852

540

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by December 31?

Jun 24, 1:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.94%chance

21529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2472

405

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by August 31?

Jun 24, 1:48 AMSep 1, 6:59 AM

83.15%chance

21279

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2222

450

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by August 15?

Jun 24, 1:44 AMAug 16, 6:59 AM

81.83%chance

31179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2122

471

Will "Fail safe(r) at alignment by channeling rewar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 24, 4:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.22%chance

2510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

936

Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 on or before July 31, 2026?

Jun 17, 1:39 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

22.77%chance

5183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

41

Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 before August 1, 2026?

Jun 18, 6:44 AMAug 1, 12:00 AM

23.3%chance

10161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

73

Will anyone between Dream or Drdonut step down as co-owner of MCPVP.com before August?

May 5, 4:42 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

54.3%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

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