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Prediction markets for Chapter 11

Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months?

Nov 8, 12:33 AMAug 20, 3:59 AM

2.33%chance

1940221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

35720

1481

Next airline to default

Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM

1017501

OptionProbability

No default amongst those listed before 2030

Bermudair

JetBlue

Avelo

Frontier

Allegiant Air

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

ANA

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Air New Zealand

Breeze

Sun Country

26

13

5

5

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'...

Nov 4, 2:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

284476

OptionProbability

Dec 31st 2028 or earlier?

June 31st 2028 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2027 or earlier?

June 31st 2027 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2026 or earlier?

June 31st 2026 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2025 or earlier?

29

20

13

9

7

3

1

What did Vegapunk try to say in chapter 1117? [ADD RESPONSES]

Jun 13, 5:02 PMJun 13, 8:59 PM

61427

OptionProbability

Other

(one) more Joyboy

(Mo)nkey D. Luffy

(Mo)rgans

53

24

14

8

Will Loki's Flashback begin in Chapter 1144?

Mar 22, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.38%chance

10449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

How will FTX’s assets be divided?

Oct 1, 8:45 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

10294

OptionProbability

Repaying customers/creditors

Legal/consulting fees

Hackers

Other

68

18

8

6

Did Kuina die from falling down the stairs?

Jan 10, 3:24 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM

84.09%chance

6149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

230

43

Steak 'n' Shake out of business before 2028?

Jun 17, 2:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.62%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

Who is the silhouetted man who showed up in chapter 1132?

Dec 3, 5:26 PM

50

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