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Prediction markets for Chapter 11

Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months?

Nov 8, 12:33 AMAug 20, 3:59 AM

2.03%chance

2448283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

39044

1407

Next airline to default

Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM

1621915

OptionProbability

JetBlue

No default amongst those listed before 2030

Frontier

Bermudair

Avelo

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Allegiant Air

Breeze

Sun Country

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

ANA

Air New Zealand

23

17

17

5

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'...

Nov 4, 2:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

304676

OptionProbability

Dec 31st 2028 or earlier?

June 31st 2028 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2027 or earlier?

June 31st 2027 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2026 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2025 or earlier?

June 31st 2026 or earlier?

33

23

11

8

6

0

0

Next mining company to announce default

Dec 8, 4:26 PMDec 8, 4:21 PM

62234

OptionProbability

None of these listed before Dec 31st 2026

Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (HYMC)

Gold Resource Corporation (GORO)

Golden Minerals Company (AUMN)

Osisko Development Corp. (ODV)

Scandium International Mining Corporation (SCY)

Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp. (WUC

Lucara Diamond Corp. (LUC)

95

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will OpenAI file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2027?

Sep 13, 12:43 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

4.95%chance

2761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

100

Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?

Aug 6, 4:40 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

26.68%chance

10212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

60

Did Kuina die from falling down the stairs?

Jan 10, 3:24 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM

84.09%chance

6149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

230

43

Will WLFI file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy by 2030?

Jan 19, 2:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.65%chance

243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

84

Steak 'n' Shake out of business before 2028?

Jun 17, 2:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.62%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

Will OpenAI or Anthropic file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2027?

Sep 13, 12:42 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

6.25%chance

212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

99

Who is the silhouetted man who showed up in chapter 1132?

Dec 3, 5:26 PM

50

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