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Prediction markets for Character

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.32%chance

18677710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2440

1502

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2331706

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

65

56

50

29

9

0

Will we believe that AI character bots make it harder for kids to form human friendships by 2028?

Oct 15, 11:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.52%chance

705154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

937

Audible sells books narrated by AI voice replacements of celebrities or characters before 2029

Jun 11, 2:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.85%chance

351328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

898

California allows non-alphanumeric characters in plates

Aug 24, 12:33 AMSep 1, 6:59 AM

8.57%chance

201292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2188

800

[Order of the Stick] Which characters will survive the rest of the comic?

Jul 26, 1:53 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

121173

OptionProbability

Elan

Roy Greenhilt

Durkon Thundershield

Haley Starshine

Minrah Shaleshoe

O-Chul

Lien

Vaarsuvius

Redcloak

Xykon

Belkar Bitterleaf

84

81

81

80

72

59

59

43

37

22

15

Will I lose another character in my PbP RPG server before anyone else loses a character?

Jul 1, 4:51 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

29.57%chance

4988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1543

648

Will a character from a previous season die in Season 4 of The White Lotus?

Apr 7, 3:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.25%chance

3405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1298

770

Will all characters in movie have an option to have a person's name "hover over" their name so that the face-blind can keep track of who is who, by 2027?

Feb 8, 7:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.57%chance

12261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

951

Will an anime character modeled off of @repligate/janus be instantiated by nearcyan's Elysian labs by 2028

May 19, 11:30 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM

48.08%chance

4160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

962

Will "LLMs Can't See Pixels or Characters" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 29, 1:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

985

Will a "The Sims"like game allow you to import pictures of real life people into characters in the game by EOY 2026?

Oct 21, 9:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.31%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

94

85

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